Draft report on AI timelines

x This website requires javascript to properly function. Consider activating javascript to get access to all site functionality. Draft report on AI timelines — LessWrong Best of LessWrong 2020 AI Timelines AI Frontpage 215 Draft report on AI timelines by Ajeya Cotra 18th Sep 2020 AI Alignment Forum 1 min read 56 215 Ω 75 Hi all, I've been working on some AI forecasting research and have prepared a draft report on timelines to transformative AI . I would love feedback from this community, so I've made the report viewable in a Google Drive folder here . With that said, most of my focus so far has been on the high-level structure of the framework, so the particular quantitative estimates are very much in flux and many input parameters aren't pinned down well -- I wrote the bulk of this report before July and have received feedback since then that I haven't fully incorporated yet. I'd prefer if people didn't share it widely in a low-bandwidth way (e.g., just posting key graphics on Facebook or Twitter) since the conclusions don't reflect Open Phil's "institutional view" yet, and there may well be some errors in the report. The report includes a quantitative model written in Python. Ought has worked with me to integrate their forecasting platform Elicit into the model so that you can see other people's forecasts for various parameters. If you have questions or feedback about the Elicit integration, feel free to reach out to elicit@ought.org . Looking forward to hearing people's thoughts! Draft report on AI timelines 98 Rohin Shah 35 Owain_Evans 33 Daniel Kokotajlo 6 Ajeya Cotra 10 Daniel Kokotajlo 5 Ajeya Cotra 17 Steven Byrnes 16 abergal 1 Ajeya Cotra 15 Andy Jones 12 John_Maxwell 2 Ajeya Cotra 14 Rohin Shah 14 avturchin 3 Ajeya Cotra 12 Daniel Kokotajlo 10 leni 10 Steven Byrnes 21 Steven Byrnes 7 Lukas_Gloor 5 Daniel Kokotajlo 2 Steven Byrnes 5 Lukas_Gloor 2 Steven Byrnes 1 Daniel_Eth 10 abergal 1 Ajeya Cotra 9 Vaniver 3 Ajeya Cotra 8 Lukas Finnveden 6 habryka 5 Ajeya Cotra 5 Jonas V 5 teradimich 4 johnswentworth 5 Ajeya Cotra 2 johnswentworth 4 Vaniver 3 Ajeya Cotra 2 Vaniver 3 Ajeya Cotra 4 Ofer 7 Vaniver 4 Daniel Kokotajlo 3 Ofer 3 Ofer 2 romeostevensit 5 Ajeya Cotra 2 romeostevensit 2 adamShimi 10 Ben Pace 1 Ajeya Cotra 7 Raemon 1 Arthur Conmy 1 Owain_Evans 1 Ajeya Cotra 56 Comments 56 AI Timelines AI Frontpage 215 Ω 75 New Comment Submit 56 comments , sorted by top scoring Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 7:49 AM [ - ] Rohin Shah 5y * Ω 37 98 0 Planned summary for the Alignment Newsletter: Once again, we have a piece of work so large and detailed that I need a whole newsletter to summarize it! This time, it is a quantitative model for forecasting when transformative AI will happen. The overall framework The key assumption behind this model is that if we train a neural net or other ML model that uses about as much computation as a human brain, that will likely result in transformat

... (truncated, 1268 KB total)