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Manifest 2026 — A Festival for Predictions and Prediction Markets
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Manifest is an annual festival in Berkeley focused on forecasting and prediction markets, featuring speakers from the AI safety and rationalist communities including figures from Anthropic, MIRI, and related organizations. It serves as a networking and intellectual exchange venue for the broader EA/rationalist/AI safety ecosystem.
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Summary
Manifest is an annual festival held in Berkeley, CA, centered on forecasting, prediction markets, and related intellectual communities. It features speakers and attendees from AI safety, rationalism, economics, and tech, including prominent figures like Eliezer Yudkowsky, Joe Carlsmith, and Scott Alexander. The event combines conference talks, workshops, open debates, and social gatherings.
Key Points
- •Annual 3-day festival in Berkeley focused on forecasting and prediction markets, next edition June 12-14, 2026.
- •Past speakers include major AI safety figures: Eliezer Yudkowsky, Joe Carlsmith (Anthropic), Ajeya Cotra, Nate Soares, Oliver Habryka.
- •Includes a free public Night Market event alongside ticketed conference programming.
- •Serves as a key in-person gathering point for the rationalist, EA, and AI safety communities.
- •Features talks, workshops, open debates, and informal networking across the Lighthaven venue.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
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| Manifold (Prediction Market) | Organization | 43.0 |
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Manifest 2026 Manifest 2026
A festival for predictions,
and markets thereof
June 12–14, 2026 | Berkeley, CA Register Speakers, of years past
Nate Silver
Silver Bulletin
Scott Alexander
Astral Codex Ten
Chris Best
Substack
Luana Lopes Lara
Kalshi
Emmett Shear
Softmax
Joe Carlsmith
Anthropic
David Shor
Blue Rose Research
Laura Deming
Cradle
Patrick McKenzie
Writer
Robin Hanson
Economist
And past appearances from
Aella · Agnes Callard · Aidan McLaughlin · Ajeya Cotra · Alex Gajewski · Allison Duettmann · Arnold Brooks · Danielle Fong · Dave White · David Holt · Divya Siddarth · Dwarkesh Patel · Dylan Matthews · Dylan Patel · Eliezer Yudkowsky · Gwern Branwen · Jay Baxter · Katja Grace · Kevin Roose · Kyle Schiller · Lars Doucet · Lincoln Quirk · Nate Soares · Noah Smith · Noam Brown · Oliver Habryka · Panda Smith · Paul Gu · Ric Best · Richard Hanania · Rob Miles · Roon · Samo Burja · Samuel Hammond · Scott Sumner · Shayne Coplan · Sholto Douglas · Stephen Grugett · Steve Hsu · Tarek Mansour · Tracing Woodgrains · Zvi Mowshowitz ·
Stay tuned as we announce speakers & guests for 2026
Tales from festivalgoers
I met many well known figures that I've been reading for years. Where else will you meet multiple people within 24 hours who casually mentioned the short story Funes the Memorious in conversation?
— Scott Sumner
I love Manifest. I paid the full price for the full ticket, sucker I am, and my subsidy provided for these swaying bauble lights, these warm soporific nooks, these flames and corridors, these souls brought to Earth together, eyes lighting up at their electric worlds made real.
— Tomie
Gwern came to my talk and told me at the end "I disagree with everything you said and your entire theory of aesthetics is wrong." lol
— Pablo
Bess and I went to Manifest, which bills itself as “A festival for forecasting and prediction markets,” a description that may technically be true but fails to capture the spirit; to my eye and experience, it’s maybe more accurately stated as “Substack and Twitter live” or “a mixture of festival-conference-party-Burning-Man for nerds with many interests to show up and enjoy each other’s company.”
— Jake Seliger
The Manifest conference has been a successful experiment: put enough introverts with common interests into a confined space and they’ll spontaneously turn into extroverts.
— Byrne Hobart
For much of my life, I have poured my attention into tough-to-explain solitary pursuits, finding myself often sitting in quiet corners on the fringes of gatherings wondering if they’re worth the effort. Not so last weekend.
— TracingWoodgrains
Scenes from Manifest
Photos courtesy of Misha
Sponsors of 2025
Sovereign · Bayes · Elicit · Futuur · Metagame
Sponsorships available for 2026 Evening Programming
The Night Market
Friday, June 12 | Berkeley, CA
The Night Market is back for the fourth year! An open-air evening celebration of
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