Ozzie Gooen - EA Forum

Ozzie Gooen - EA Forum 
 
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 12264 karma Joined Dec 2014 Berkeley, CA, USA Message Get notified Bio

 I'm currently researching forecasting and epistemics as part of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.

 Posts 92 

 Sorted by New 7 Ozzie Gooen's Quick takes Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 6y  ago · 1 m read 333 333 20 Opinion Fuzzing: A Proposal for Reducing & Exploring Variance in LLM Judgments Via Sampling Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 5mo  ago · 6 m read 0 0 116 Announcing RoastMyPost: LLMs Eval Blog Posts and More Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 5mo  ago · 6 m read 14 14 49 Information-Dense Conference Badges Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 4 m read 4 4 9 Defining "Bullshit": Limitations and Related Frameworks
 Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 5 m read 0 0 11 Keeping "Epistemics" Broad: An Early Exploration Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 2 m read 1 1 123 A Defense of Mid-Tier EA/LW Writing Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 3 m read 16 16 23 Nuanced Models for the Influence of Information Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 2 m read 1 1 34 Favorite Recent LLM Prompts & Tips? Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 1 m read 13 13 15 
A Sketch of AI-Driven Epistemic Lock-In Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 4 m read 1 1 30 6 (Potential) Misconceptions about AI Intellectuals Ozzie Gooen Ozzie Gooen · 1y  ago · 14 m read 2 2 Sequences 1 

 Amibitous Altruistic Software Efforts Comments 1169 

 Topic contributions 4 

 Cullen's Quick takes Ozzie Gooen 1mo 6 1 0 I think there was one certain failure mode of "prediction markets will somehow both be legal, and also more legal than regular sports gambling, in the US".

This combination of scenarios seemed very unlikely to me 4-6 years ago! I think this was seen universally as a tough combination, you can see this in the market prices / valuations of the related companies. 

That said, there was an understanding a while back that US public prediction markets would likely be sleazy/predatory in ways similar to sports gambling. This is one reason I preferred prediction tournaments like Metaculus over financial prediction markets like Kalshi.

I'd also flag that there was, and still is, potential for real-money prediction markets to get adapted by large experienced financial authorities for more serious purposes like hedging. There are overall professionalized and useful ways to use these sorts of tools, though it is the case that much of the current market is quite miserable. 

 Reply Ozzie Gooen's Quick takes Ozzie Gooen 3mo 5 2 0 2 Thanks so much for this response! That's really useful to know. I really appreciate the transparency and clarity here. 

 Hope that the team members of it are all doing well now.  

 Reply Ozzie Gooen's Quick takes Ozzie Gooen 4mo * 2 0 0 1 I don't mean to sound too negative on this - I did j

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