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Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) — About
webquantifieduncertainty.org·quantifieduncertainty.org/about/
QURI is a nonprofit focused on forecasting and epistemics tools relevant to AI safety decision-making, developing Squiggle, Guesstimate, and Metaforecast — tools used by the EA and AI safety communities for quantified uncertainty and cause prioritization.
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Summary
QURI is a nonprofit organization founded to advance forecasting and epistemics for improving long-term outcomes for humanity. It develops and maintains software tools including Squiggle, Guesstimate, and Metaforecast, and conducts investigative research on forecasting. It is fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities and funded by EA-aligned donors.
Key Points
- •QURI develops Squiggle, a probabilistic programming language for quantified uncertainty, alongside Guesstimate and Metaforecast.
- •Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, growing out of Guesstimate (2016), originally built for EA cause prioritization.
- •Fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities; funded by Long-Term Future Fund and Survival and Flourishing Fund.
- •Focus is on software tools and research to improve epistemic quality and forecasting in high-stakes domains.
- •Based in Berkeley, CA; open to consulting and community engagement via Discord and email.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Organization | 48.0 |
4 FactBase facts citing this source
| Entity | Property | Value | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | fiscal-sponsor | sid_t0p43V5oLA | 2023 |
| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Legal Structure | 501(c)(3) nonprofit | Mar 2026 |
| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Founder (text) | Ozzie Gooen | — |
| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | fiscal-sponsor | sid_t0p43V5oLA | 2023 |
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About The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute is a nonprofit aimed at advancing forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity. We write research and make software. QURI is a non-profit 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organization, EIN 84-3847921. Projects Our main active project now is Squiggle . We also maintain other software applications and do investigative research on forecasting and epistemics. QURI is now running Guesstimate and Metaforecast . You can see an Airtable with much of our content and work here . Structure QURI is fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities . We have our own 501(c)(3) for key organizational assets, but use our sponsorship with Rethink Priorities to handle operations and employment. History 2016: Ozzie Gooen founds Guesstimate as a startup. This was made primarily for use by effective altruists to do cause prioritization. 2019: QURI is officially formed as a nonprofit vehicle for useful forecasting research and infrastructure. 2020: Ozzie leaves FHI to join QURI full time. Nuno Sempere joins QURI. 2022: Squiggle is released in Early Access . Squiggle development becomes a larger focus. Slava Matyuhin joins QURI. 2023: QURI became sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Guesstimate is absorbed into QURI. Consulting Most of our focus is on our software, but we occasionally do consulting work. If there is something you think we could be a good reach for, please reach out. Contact Email us at hello@quantifieduncertainty.org . You can also find us on our Discord . QURI is primarily based in Berkeley, California. Donors Our donors so far have included the Long-Term Future Fund , the Survival and Flourishing Fund , and several individuals. We're very thankful to all of these. If you might be interested in supporting us, see our donation page .
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