Back
Good Judgment Inc. – Superforecasting & Probabilistic Prediction Research
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc. operationalizes Tetlock's superforecasting research; their methods are widely cited in AI safety circles for improving calibration of capabilities timelines and risk probability estimates.
Metadata
Importance: 55/100homepage
Summary
Good Judgment Inc. is the commercial spinoff of Philip Tetlock's landmark forecasting research, which demonstrated that a select group of 'superforecasters' can consistently outperform intelligence analysts and expert predictions using rigorous probabilistic thinking. The platform aggregates expert forecasts on geopolitical, technological, and scientific questions. It is highly relevant to AI safety for evaluating AI capabilities timelines and risk assessments.
Key Points
- •Superforecasters consistently outperform traditional expert forecasters by using calibrated probabilistic reasoning, frequent belief updates, and structured decomposition of problems.
- •The research, originating from IARPA's ACE tournament, showed that aggregating diverse informed perspectives can beat siloed expert consensus.
- •Good Judgment offers forecasting tools and crowd-sourced prediction markets applicable to AI development timelines and governance questions.
- •Probabilistic forecasting methodology is directly applicable to AI risk assessments, helping quantify uncertainty around transformative AI events.
- •The platform's techniques inform how AI safety researchers and policymakers can make more calibrated predictions about emerging AI capabilities and risks.
Review
Tetlock's groundbreaking research on Superforecasting emerged from a US intelligence community-funded project that challenged conventional wisdom about predictive accuracy. The Good Judgment Project, led by Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, demonstrated that a select group of forecasters could consistently outperform professional intelligence analysts, even those with access to classified information, by approximately 30%.
The research has profound implications for decision-making across multiple domains, including government, finance, energy, and nonprofit sectors. By identifying and training individuals with specific cognitive traits and methodological approaches, Superforecasting offers a systematic approach to reducing uncertainty and improving strategic planning. The work highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, continuous learning, and carefully calibrated predictions over dogmatic or overconfident forecasting methods.
Cited by 3 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Metaculus | Organization | 50.0 |
| AI-Augmented Forecasting | Approach | 54.0 |
| Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting) | Approach | 56.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 9, 20267 KB
See the future sooner with Superforecasting | Good Judgment
See the future sooner
Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting
Our FutureFirst™ service gives you 24/7 access to Superforecaster insights on dozens of newsworthy questions.
Learn more about FutureFirst
Public Workshop: 12 & 13 May 2026
Online Training
Superforecasting ® Services
FutureFirst™
See the future coming with professional crowd-sourced insights and quantified forecasts.
Learn More
Training
Train your internal strategists and analysts to think like Superforecasters.
Learn More
All Good Judgment Services
Great decisions require great forecasts. Good Judgment uses the science of Superforecasting to turn your strategic uncertainty into manageable risk.
Learn More
A quick peek at what the Superforecasters are saying today…
With a subscription to FutureFirst you have access to dozens of daily updated forecasts
plus qualitative analysis by Good Judgment Inc’s Professional Superforecasters.
Contact Us
Who are the Superforecasters?
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate?
That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
Who We Serve
The world’s most innovative organizations turn to Good Judgment to get early insight on pivotal questions about the future.
Financial Services
Financial services firms succeed when they foresee risks and opportunities before they are priced into the market. Superforecasting helps these firms make smart bets on consumer trends, regulatory developments, and geopolitical shifts that the less-informed crowd has yet to recognize. See how our Covid vaccine Superforecasts anticipated financial markets.
Energy
Energy companies rely on forecasts to decide which resources to develop, which markets to serve, and what prices to charge. Good Judgment helps energy providers quantify geopolitical and regulatory risks so that the firms can build decision model
... (truncated, 7 KB total)Resource ID:
664518d11aec3317 | Stable ID: MzY3Y2U2ZG