RAND - Incentives for U.S.-China Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation

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RAND Corporation·rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4189-1.html

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Summary

The report examines potential U.S.-China dynamics around artificial general intelligence (AGI), highlighting both competitive tensions and cooperative opportunities across five key national security problems.

Key Points

•AGI could dramatically reshape global power dynamics, creating both competitive and cooperative incentives
•Mutual risks like WMD proliferation and uncontrolled AI systems create potential areas for U.S.-China cooperation
•Diplomatic mechanisms and communication channels are crucial to preventing accidental escalation

Review

This RAND Corporation analysis offers a nuanced exploration of how the United States and China might navigate the emerging landscape of artificial general intelligence (AGI). The authors argue that while strategic rivalry creates strong incentives for competition, there are also critical areas where cooperation could be mutually beneficial and even necessary to mitigate existential risks. The study systematically examines five 'hard national security problems' related to AGI: wonder weapons, systemic power shifts, WMD proliferation, artificial agency, and potential instability. By mapping out potential scenarios of conflict, competition, and cooperation, the research provides a sophisticated framework for understanding the geopolitical challenges of transformative AI. The authors emphasize that deliberate diplomatic efforts will be essential to manage potential risks, suggesting Track 1.5 dialogues, expert working groups, and incremental confidence-building measures as potential pathways to productive engagement.

Cited by 3 pages

Page	Type	Quality
Intervention Timing Windows	Analysis	72.0
International Coordination Mechanisms	Policy	91.0
Governance-Focused Worldview	Concept	67.0

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# Incentives for U.S.-China Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation Across Artificial General Intelligence’s Five Hard National Security Problems

[Michael S. Chase](https://www.rand.org/about/people/c/chase_michael_s.html), [William Marcellino](https://www.rand.org/about/people/m/marcellino_william.html)

Expert InsightsPublished Aug 4, 2025

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In a relationship marked by strategic rivalry and mutual suspicion, the prospect of either the United States or the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—or both—achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) is likely to heighten tensions and could even increase the risk of competition spiraling into conflict. [\[1\]](https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4189-1.html#fn1) This is unsurprising, as AGI could reshape the global balance of power or yield “wonder weapons” capable of overwhelming intelligence systems, information ecosystems, and cyber defenses (Mitre and Predd, 2025).

Yet the emergence of AGI could also create incentives for risk reduction and cooperation. We argue that both will not only be possible but essential. The United States and China will both want to avoid miscalculation and misunderstandings that could lead to an unwanted war. Neither will be able to manage alone the risks of AGI misuse—whether from rogue actors developing novel weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), autonomous agents triggering crises, or cascading disruptions that ex

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