AI Chip Export Controls

{
  "id": "export-controls",
  "numericId": null,
  "path": "/knowledge-base/responses/export-controls/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/responses/export-controls.mdx",
  "title": "AI Chip Export Controls",
  "quality": 73,
  "readerImportance": 87.5,
  "researchImportance": 33.5,
  "tacticalValue": 86,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "tractability": null,
  "neglectedness": null,
  "uncertainty": null,
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Comprehensive empirical analysis finds US chip export controls provide 1-3 year delays on Chinese AI development but face severe enforcement gaps (140,000 GPUs smuggled in 2024, only 1 BIS officer for Southeast Asia) and unintended consequences (DeepSeek achieved GPT-4 parity at 1/10th compute, forcing efficiency innovations). Controls primarily serve geopolitical rather than safety objectives, with contested effects on international cooperation needed for AI governance.",
  "description": "US restrictions on semiconductor exports targeting China have disrupted near-term AI development but face significant limitations. Analysis finds controls provide 1-3 years delay on frontier capabilities, with approximately 140,000 GPUs smuggled in 2024 alone and China's \\$47.5 billion Big Fund III accelerating domestic alternatives.",
  "ratings": {
    "novelty": 6.2,
    "rigor": 7.8,
    "actionability": 6.5,
    "completeness": 8.1
  },
  "category": "responses",
  "subcategory": "compute-governance",
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety",
    "governance"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 4123,
    "tableCount": 6,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 40,
    "externalLinks": 0,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.12,
    "sectionCount": 36,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 12
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 80,
  "updateFrequency": 21,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 4123,
  "unconvertedLinks": [],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 0,
  "convertedLinkCount": 34,
  "backlinkCount": 21,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 45,
    "factors": [
      "no-citations",
      "few-external-sources",
      "high-rigor"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "policy",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 22,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "authoritarian-tools-diffusion",
        "title": "Authoritarian Tools Diffusion Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/authoritarian-tools-diffusion/",
        "similarity": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "monitoring",
        "title": "Compute Monitoring",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/responses/monitoring/",
        "similarity": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "international-regimes",
        "title": "International Compute Regimes",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/responses/international-regimes/",
        "similarity": 21
      },
      {
        "id": "projecting-compute-spending",
        "title": "Projecting Compute Spending",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/projecting-compute-spending/",
        "similarity": 20
      },
      {
        "id": "international-summits",
        "title": "International AI Safety Summits",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/responses/international-summits/",
        "similarity": 20
      }
    ]
  },
  "changeHistory": [
    {
      "date": "2026-02-18",
      "branch": "claude/fix-issue-240-N5irU",
      "title": "Surface tacticalValue in /wiki table and score 53 pages",
      "summary": "Added `tacticalValue` to `ExploreItem` interface, `getExploreItems()` mappings, the `/wiki` explore table (new sortable \"Tact.\" column), and the card view sort dropdown. Scored 49 new pages with tactical values (4 were already scored), bringing total to 53.",
      "model": "sonnet-4",
      "duration": "~30min"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 7,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 16,
      "diagrams": 2,
      "internalLinks": 33,
      "externalLinks": 21,
      "footnotes": 12,
      "references": 12
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 6,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 40,
      "externalLinks": 0,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 22,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "llmSummary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "green",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "amber",
      "diagrams": "amber",
      "internalLinks": "green",
      "externalLinks": "red",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "green",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "editHistoryCount": 1,
    "ratingsString": "N:6.2 R:7.8 A:6.5 C:8.1"
  },
  "readerRank": 35,
  "researchRank": 392,
  "recommendedScore": 211.61
}

{
  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/export-controls"
}