Forecasting Research Institute

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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "FRI's XPT tournament found superforecasters gave 9.7% average probability to AI progress outcomes that occurred vs 24.6% from domain experts, suggesting superforecasters systematically underestimate AI progress. Their research shows median expert AI extinction risk at 3% by 2100 vs 0.38% from superforecasters, with minimal belief convergence despite structured debate.",
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