Forecasting Research Institute

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  "llmSummary": "FRI's XPT tournament found superforecasters gave 9.7% average probability to AI progress outcomes that occurred vs 24.6% from domain experts, suggesting superforecasters systematically underestimate AI progress. Their research shows median expert AI extinction risk at 3% by 2100 vs 0.38% from superforecasters, with minimal belief convergence despite structured debate.",
  "description": "The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) advances forecasting methodology through large-scale tournaments and rigorous experiments. Their Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) found superforecasters gave 9.7% average probability to observed AI progress outcomes, while domain experts gave 24.6%. FRI's ForecastBench provides the first contamination-free benchmark for LLM forecasting accuracy.",
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No external links