Skip to content
Longterm Wiki has not been actively maintained since May 2026. Some data is still updated occasionally, but please don't rely on this site being current or accurate.
Longterm Wiki

Instrumental Convergence

instrumental-convergenceriskPath: /knowledge-base/risks/instrumental-convergence/
E168Entity ID (EID)
← Back to page38 backlinksQuality: 64Updated: 2026-01-29
Page Recorddatabase.json — merged from MDX frontmatter + Entity YAML + computed metrics at build time
{
  "id": "instrumental-convergence",
  "wikiId": "E168",
  "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/instrumental-convergence/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/risks/instrumental-convergence.mdx",
  "title": "Instrumental Convergence",
  "quality": 64,
  "readerImportance": 63.5,
  "researchImportance": 82.5,
  "tacticalValue": null,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "causalLevel": "pathway",
  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-29",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Comprehensive review of instrumental convergence theory with extensive empirical evidence from 2024-2025 showing 78% alignment faking rates, 79-97% shutdown resistance in frontier models, and expert estimates of 3-14% extinction probability by 2100. Synthesizes formal proofs (Turner 2021), theoretical frameworks (Bostrom, Omohundro), and recent empirical findings across multiple research organizations.",
  "description": "Instrumental convergence is the tendency for AI systems to develop dangerous subgoals like self-preservation and resource acquisition regardless of their primary objectives.",
  "ratings": {
    "novelty": 4.5,
    "rigor": 7,
    "completeness": 8,
    "actionability": 5.5
  },
  "category": "risks",
  "subcategory": "accident",
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 5022,
    "tableCount": 14,
    "diagramCount": 3,
    "internalLinks": 73,
    "externalLinks": 36,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.09,
    "sectionCount": 39,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 15
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 100,
  "updateFrequency": 45,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 5022,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament",
      "url": "https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt",
      "resourceId": "5c91c25b0c337e1b",
      "resourceTitle": "Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) Results"
    },
    {
      "text": "Carlsmith (2022)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353",
      "resourceId": "6e597a4dc1f6f860",
      "resourceTitle": "Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?"
    },
    {
      "text": "Turner et al. (2021)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01683",
      "resourceId": "a93d9acd21819d62",
      "resourceTitle": "Turner et al. formal results"
    },
    {
      "text": "International AI Safety Report (2025)",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/",
      "resourceId": "0e18641415977ad6",
      "resourceTitle": "International AI Safety Report 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "o3 shutdown sabotage",
      "url": "https://palisaderesearch.org/blog/shutdown-resistance",
      "resourceId": "0f6fb2f1a95e716a",
      "resourceTitle": "Shutdown resistance in reasoning models"
    },
    {
      "text": "Apollo Research",
      "url": "https://www.apolloresearch.ai/research/scheming-reasoning-evaluations",
      "resourceId": "91737bf431000298",
      "resourceTitle": "Frontier Models are Capable of In-Context Scheming"
    },
    {
      "text": "Palisade Research",
      "url": "https://palisaderesearch.org/blog/shutdown-resistance",
      "resourceId": "0f6fb2f1a95e716a",
      "resourceTitle": "Shutdown resistance in reasoning models"
    },
    {
      "text": "Palisade Research's studies",
      "url": "https://palisaderesearch.org/blog/shutdown-resistance",
      "resourceId": "0f6fb2f1a95e716a",
      "resourceTitle": "Shutdown resistance in reasoning models"
    },
    {
      "text": "Anthropic's study on agentic misalignment",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com",
      "resourceId": "ef96dc6d7727d718",
      "resourceTitle": "Anthropic"
    },
    {
      "text": "International AI Safety Report",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/",
      "resourceId": "0e18641415977ad6",
      "resourceTitle": "International AI Safety Report 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "International AI Safety Report (2025)",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/",
      "resourceId": "0e18641415977ad6",
      "resourceTitle": "International AI Safety Report 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "Aligning AI Through Internal Understanding (2025)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2509.08592v1",
      "resourceId": "eb734fcf5afd57ef",
      "resourceTitle": "Aligning AI Through Internal Understanding"
    },
    {
      "text": "International AI Safety Report (2025)",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/",
      "resourceId": "0e18641415977ad6",
      "resourceTitle": "International AI Safety Report 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "Palisade Research (2025). \"Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models\"",
      "url": "https://palisaderesearch.org/blog/shutdown-resistance",
      "resourceId": "0f6fb2f1a95e716a",
      "resourceTitle": "Shutdown resistance in reasoning models"
    },
    {
      "text": "International AI Safety Report (2025)",
      "url": "https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/",
      "resourceId": "0e18641415977ad6",
      "resourceTitle": "International AI Safety Report 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "Interpretability for Alignment (2025)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2509.08592v1",
      "resourceId": "eb734fcf5afd57ef",
      "resourceTitle": "Aligning AI Through Internal Understanding"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 16,
  "convertedLinkCount": 63,
  "backlinkCount": 38,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 40,
    "factors": [
      "no-citations",
      "high-rigor"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "risk",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 24,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "corrigibility-failure",
        "title": "Corrigibility Failure",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/corrigibility-failure/",
        "similarity": 24
      },
      {
        "id": "treacherous-turn",
        "title": "Treacherous Turn",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/treacherous-turn/",
        "similarity": 24
      },
      {
        "id": "power-seeking",
        "title": "Power-Seeking AI",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/power-seeking/",
        "similarity": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "self-improvement",
        "title": "Self-Improvement and Recursive Enhancement",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/capabilities/self-improvement/",
        "similarity": 21
      },
      {
        "id": "scheming",
        "title": "Scheming",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/scheming/",
        "similarity": 21
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 8,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 20,
      "diagrams": 2,
      "internalLinks": 40,
      "externalLinks": 25,
      "footnotes": 15,
      "references": 15
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 14,
      "diagrams": 3,
      "internalLinks": 73,
      "externalLinks": 36,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 33,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "summary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "amber",
      "diagrams": "green",
      "internalLinks": "green",
      "externalLinks": "green",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "green",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "ratingsString": "N:4.5 R:7 A:5.5 C:8"
  },
  "readerRank": 206,
  "researchRank": 74,
  "recommendedScore": 163.91
}
External Links
{
  "wikipedia": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence",
  "lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/instrumental-convergence",
  "stampy": "https://aisafety.info/questions/5FhD/What-is-instrumental-convergence",
  "arbital": "https://arbital.greaterwrong.com/p/instrumental_convergence",
  "eightyK": "https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/risks-from-power-seeking-ai/",
  "grokipedia": "https://grokipedia.com/page/Instrumental_convergence"
}
Backlinks (38)
idtitletyperelationship
carlsmith-six-premisesCarlsmith's Six-Premise Argumentanalysisanalyzes
power-seeking-conditionsPower-Seeking Emergence Conditions Modelanalysisrelated
instrumental-convergence-frameworkInstrumental Convergence Frameworkanalysisanalyzes
corrigibility-failure-pathwaysCorrigibility Failure Pathwaysanalysiscause
miriMachine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI)organization—
nick-bostromNick Bostromperson—
corrigibility-failureCorrigibility Failurerisk—
power-seekingPower-Seeking AIrisk—
treacherous-turnTreacherous Turnrisk—
rogue-ai-scenariosRogue AI Scenariosrisk—
agentic-aiAgentic AIcapability—
accident-risksAI Accident Risk Cruxescrux—
case-for-xriskThe Case FOR AI Existential Riskargument—
is-ai-xrisk-realIs AI Existential Risk Real?crux—
why-alignment-hardWhy Alignment Might Be Hardargument—
deep-learning-eraDeep Learning Revolution (2012-2020)historical—
__index__/knowledge-base/historyHistoryconcept—
miri-eraThe MIRI Era (2000-2015)historical—
openclaw-matplotlib-incident-2026OpenClaw Matplotlib Incident (2026)concept—
__index__/knowledge-baseKnowledge Baseconcept—
alignment-robustness-trajectoryAlignment Robustness Trajectoryanalysis—
deceptive-alignment-decompositionDeceptive Alignment Decomposition Modelanalysis—
mesa-optimization-analysisMesa-Optimization Risk Analysisanalysis—
bridgewater-aia-labsBridgewater AIA Labsorganization—
lesswrongLessWrongorganization—
seldon-labSeldon Laborganization—
the-sequencesThe Sequences by Eliezer Yudkowskyorganization—
eliezer-yudkowsky-predictionsEliezer Yudkowsky: Track Recordconcept—
toby-ordToby Ordperson—
yann-lecunYann LeCunperson—
agent-foundationsAgent Foundationsapproach—
corrigibilityCorrigibility Researchresearch-area—
accident-overviewAccident Risks (Overview)concept—
deceptive-alignmentDeceptive Alignmentrisk—
existential-riskExistential Risk from AIconcept—
__index__/knowledge-base/risksAI Risksconcept—
sycophancySycophancyrisk—
doomerAI Doomer Worldviewconcept—