Proliferation

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  "title": "Proliferation",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-29",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "AI proliferation accelerated dramatically as the capability gap narrowed from 18 to 6 months (2022-2024), with open-source models like DeepSeek R1 now matching frontier performance. US export controls reduced China's compute share from 37% to 14% but failed to prevent capability parity through algorithmic innovation, leaving proliferation's net impact on safety deeply uncertain.",
  "description": "AI proliferation—the spread of capabilities from frontier labs to diverse actors—accelerated dramatically as the capability gap narrowed from 18 to 6 months (2022-2024).",
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      "text": "Qwen overtook Llama in downloads 2025",
      "url": "https://www.red-line.ai/p/state-of-open-source-ai-2025",
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      "resourceTitle": "open-source models closed to within 1.70%"
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      "resourceTitle": "International AI Safety Report (October 2025)"
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      "text": "Overtook LLaMA in total downloads by mid-2025",
      "url": "https://www.red-line.ai/p/state-of-open-source-ai-2025",
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      "resourceTitle": "open-source models closed to within 1.70%"
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    {
      "text": "the gap narrowing to just 1.7% on some benchmarks by 2025",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report",
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      "text": "30% of Python code written by US open-source contributors was AI-generated in 2024",
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      "text": "Mean downloaded model size increased from 827M to 20.8B parameters (2023-2025)",
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      "text": "Trump administration rescinds AI Diffusion Rule",
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      "resourceTitle": "BIS - Department of Commerce Announces Rescission of Biden-Era AI Diffusion Rule"
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      "text": "Huawei will produce only 200,000 AI chips in 2025, while Nvidia produces 4-5 million",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/article/chinas-ai-chip-deficit-why-huawei-cant-catch-nvidia-and-us-export-controls-should-remain",
      "resourceId": "fe41a8475bafc188",
      "resourceTitle": "China's AI Chip Deficit: Why Huawei Can't Catch Nvidia"
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      "text": "DeepSeek R1 generated CBRN info \"that can't be found on Google\"",
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      "text": "Open-weight models closed the performance gap from 8% to 1.7% on some benchmarks in a single year",
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      "text": "China's AI Safety Governance Framework 2.0 (Sep 2024)",
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      "text": "China's AI Safety Framework diverges from Western approaches",
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{
  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/proliferation"
}