UMA Protocol

Builder of the Optimistic Oracle used by Polymarket for dispute resolution. Uses "optimistic" model where assertions are assumed true unless challenged. Now integrating LLMs to propose and dispute data for faster/cheaper resolution. Whitelisted human proposers achieve 99.7% accuracy; overall undisputed rate >98%.

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Organization

Polymarket

The world's largest decentralized prediction market platform, built on Polygon blockchain, enabling users to trade on real-world event outcomes

Project

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Concept

AGI Timeline

Expert forecasts and prediction markets suggest 50% probability of AGI by 2030-2045, with Metaculus predicting median of November 2027 and lab lead...

Approach

AI-Augmented Forecasting

Combining AI capabilities with human judgment for better predictions about future events, achieving measurable accuracy improvements while addressi...