XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)

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  "title": "XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)",
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  "llmSummary": "A 2022 forecasting tournament with 169 participants found superforecasters severely underestimated AI progress (2.3% probability for IMO gold vs actual 2025 achievement) and gave 8x lower AI extinction risk estimates than domain experts (0.38% vs 3% by 2100), with minimal belief convergence despite four months of structured debate. The key actionable finding is that domain experts were 2.5x more accurate than superforecasters on AI benchmarks, suggesting AI researcher predictions deserve more weight on AI-specific questions.",
  "description": "A four-month structured forecasting tournament (June-October 2022) that brought together 169 participants—89 superforecasters and 80 domain experts—to forecast existential risks through adversarial collaboration. Results published in the International Journal of Forecasting found superforecasters severely underestimated AI progress (2.3% probability for IMO gold achievement vs actual occurrence in July 2025) and gave dramatically lower extinction risk estimates than domain experts (0.38% vs 3% for AI-caused extinction by 2100).",
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    {
      "text": "Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)",
      "url": "https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt",
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      "resourceTitle": "XPT Results"
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      "text": "*International Journal of Forecasting*",
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    {
      "text": "EA Forum: Announcing XPT Results",
      "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/un42vaZgyX7ch2kaj/announcing-forecasting-existential-risks-evidence-from-a",
      "resourceId": "48e3a3e49e5d0947",
      "resourceTitle": "Announcing 'Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament' - EA Forum"
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No external links