AI Misuse Risk Cruxes

{
  "id": "misuse-risks",
  "numericId": null,
  "path": "/knowledge-base/cruxes/misuse-risks/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/cruxes/misuse-risks.mdx",
  "title": "AI Misuse Risk Cruxes",
  "quality": 65,
  "readerImportance": 81.5,
  "researchImportance": 86,
  "tacticalValue": 58,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "tractability": null,
  "neglectedness": null,
  "uncertainty": null,
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Comprehensive analysis of 13 AI misuse cruxes with quantified evidence showing mixed uplift (RAND bio study found no significant difference, but cyber CTF scores improved 27%→76% in 3 months), deepfake incidents projected at 8M by 2025 (up from 500K in 2023), and human detection accuracy at only 24.5%. Framework explicitly maps uncertainties to policy responses (restrictions, compute governance, detection systems) with probability ranges for each position.",
  "description": "Key uncertainties that determine views on AI misuse risks, including capability uplift (30-45% significant vs 35-45% modest), offense-defense balance, and mitigation effectiveness across bioweapons, cyberweapons, and autonomous systems",
  "ratings": {
    "novelty": 5.8,
    "rigor": 6.5,
    "actionability": 7.2,
    "completeness": 7
  },
  "category": "cruxes",
  "subcategory": null,
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety",
    "biorisks",
    "cyber",
    "governance"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 2053,
    "tableCount": 18,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 22,
    "externalLinks": 55,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.01,
    "sectionCount": 30,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 15
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 100,
  "updateFrequency": 7,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 2053,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "AI Incident Database",
      "url": "https://incidentdatabase.ai/",
      "resourceId": "baac25fa61cb2244",
      "resourceTitle": "AI Incident Database"
    },
    {
      "text": "RAND",
      "url": "https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2977-2.html",
      "resourceId": "0fe4cfa7ca5f2270",
      "resourceTitle": "RAND Corporation study"
    },
    {
      "text": "RAND Red-Team Study",
      "url": "https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2977-2.html",
      "resourceId": "0fe4cfa7ca5f2270",
      "resourceTitle": "RAND Corporation study"
    },
    {
      "text": "Deepstrike Research",
      "url": "https://deepstrike.io/blog/deepfake-statistics-2025",
      "resourceId": "d786af9f7b112dc6",
      "resourceTitle": "Deepstrike"
    },
    {
      "text": "Deepstrike 2025",
      "url": "https://deepstrike.io/blog/deepfake-statistics-2025",
      "resourceId": "d786af9f7b112dc6",
      "resourceTitle": "Deepstrike"
    },
    {
      "text": "C2PA",
      "url": "https://c2pa.org/",
      "resourceId": "ff89bed1f7960ab2",
      "resourceTitle": "C2PA Explainer Videos"
    },
    {
      "text": "Congressional Research Service analysis",
      "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11150",
      "resourceId": "65548750e4511847",
      "resourceTitle": "Section 1066 of the FY2025 NDAA"
    },
    {
      "text": "ASIL Insights",
      "url": "https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/29/issue/1",
      "resourceId": "461296b9a5df30f5",
      "resourceTitle": "December 2024 UN General Assembly resolution"
    },
    {
      "text": "RAND Corporation",
      "url": "https://www.rand.org/topics/artificial-intelligence.html",
      "resourceId": "cf5fd74e8db11565",
      "resourceTitle": "RAND: AI and National Security"
    },
    {
      "text": "Georgetown CSET",
      "url": "https://cset.georgetown.edu/",
      "resourceId": "f0d95954b449240a",
      "resourceTitle": "CSET: AI Market Dynamics"
    },
    {
      "text": "CNAS",
      "url": "https://www.cnas.org/",
      "resourceId": "58f6946af0177ca5",
      "resourceTitle": "CNAS"
    },
    {
      "text": "UN CCW GGE on LAWS",
      "url": "https://meetings.unoda.org/ccw/convention-on-certain-conventional-weapons-group-of-governmental-experts-on-lethal-autonomous-weapons-systems-2025",
      "resourceId": "c5cc338fe2a44f23",
      "resourceTitle": "March and September 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "Congressional Research Service",
      "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11150",
      "resourceId": "65548750e4511847",
      "resourceTitle": "Section 1066 of the FY2025 NDAA"
    },
    {
      "text": "ASIL",
      "url": "https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/29/issue/1",
      "resourceId": "461296b9a5df30f5",
      "resourceTitle": "December 2024 UN General Assembly resolution"
    },
    {
      "text": "Deepstrike Research",
      "url": "https://deepstrike.io/blog/deepfake-statistics-2025",
      "resourceId": "d786af9f7b112dc6",
      "resourceTitle": "Deepstrike"
    },
    {
      "text": "C2PA Coalition",
      "url": "https://c2pa.org/",
      "resourceId": "ff89bed1f7960ab2",
      "resourceTitle": "C2PA Explainer Videos"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 16,
  "convertedLinkCount": 15,
  "backlinkCount": 13,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 45,
    "factors": [
      "no-citations",
      "conceptual-content"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "crux",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 14,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "bioweapons-ai-uplift",
        "title": "AI Uplift Assessment Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/bioweapons-ai-uplift/",
        "similarity": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "capability-threshold-model",
        "title": "Capability Threshold Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/capability-threshold-model/",
        "similarity": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "coding",
        "title": "Autonomous Coding",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/capabilities/coding/",
        "similarity": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "large-language-models",
        "title": "Large Language Models",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/capabilities/large-language-models/",
        "similarity": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "agi-development",
        "title": "AGI Development",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/forecasting/agi-development/",
        "similarity": 13
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 9,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 8,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 16,
      "externalLinks": 10,
      "footnotes": 6,
      "references": 6
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 18,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 22,
      "externalLinks": 55,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 21,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "llmSummary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "green",
      "diagrams": "green",
      "internalLinks": "green",
      "externalLinks": "green",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "green",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "ratingsString": "N:5.8 R:6.5 A:7.2 C:7"
  },
  "readerRank": 77,
  "researchRank": 47,
  "recommendedScore": 192.42
}

{
  "lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ai-misuse",
  "eightyK": "https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/catastrophic-ai-misuse/"
}