AGI Timeline

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  "title": "AGI Timeline",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Comprehensive synthesis of AGI timeline forecasts showing dramatic acceleration: expert median dropped from 2061 (2018) to 2047 (2023), Metaculus from 50 years to 5 years since 2020, with current predictions clustering around 2027-2045 median (50% probability). Aggregates 9,300+ predictions across expert surveys, prediction markets, and lab leader statements, documenting key uncertainties around scaling limits, definitions, and technical bottlenecks.",
  "description": "Expert forecasts and prediction markets suggest 50% probability of AGI by 2030-2045, with Metaculus predicting median of November 2027 and lab leaders (Altman, Amodei, Hassabis) converging on 2026-2029. Timelines have shortened dramatically—Metaculus dropped from 50 years to 5 years since 2020.",
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      "text": "Metaculus",
      "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-general-ai-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-announced/",
      "resourceId": "bb81f2a99fdba0ec",
      "resourceTitle": "Metaculus"
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    {
      "text": "AI Multiple",
      "url": "https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/",
      "resourceId": "2f2cf65315f48c6b",
      "resourceTitle": "Andrej Karpathy"
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    {
      "text": "80,000 Hours",
      "url": "https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/",
      "resourceId": "f2394e3212f072f5",
      "resourceTitle": "80,000 Hours AGI Timelines Review"
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    {
      "text": "80,000 Hours analysis",
      "url": "https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/",
      "resourceId": "f2394e3212f072f5",
      "resourceTitle": "80,000 Hours AGI Timelines Review"
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    {
      "text": "AGI Dashboard",
      "url": "https://agi.goodheartlabs.com/",
      "resourceId": "62e56523995e761b",
      "resourceTitle": "AGI Timelines Dashboard"
    },
    {
      "text": "Sam Altman Blog",
      "url": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity",
      "resourceId": "2bc0d4251ea0868f",
      "resourceTitle": "\"we are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started\""
    },
    {
      "text": "Lex Fridman Interview",
      "url": "https://lexfridman.com/dario-amodei-transcript/",
      "resourceId": "c6218e8dfd42eaf4",
      "resourceTitle": "Dario Amodei"
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      "text": "Dario Amodei",
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      "resourceId": "2bc0d4251ea0868f",
      "resourceTitle": "\"we are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started\""
    },
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      "text": "Transcript",
      "url": "https://lexfridman.com/dario-amodei-transcript/",
      "resourceId": "c6218e8dfd42eaf4",
      "resourceTitle": "Dario Amodei"
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      "text": "Analysis",
      "url": "https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/",
      "resourceId": "2f2cf65315f48c6b",
      "resourceTitle": "Andrej Karpathy"
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    {
      "text": "Dashboard",
      "url": "https://agi.goodheartlabs.com/",
      "resourceId": "62e56523995e761b",
      "resourceTitle": "AGI Timelines Dashboard"
    },
    {
      "text": "Samotsvety Forecasting",
      "url": "https://samotsvety.org/",
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      "resourceTitle": "Samotsvety Forecasting"
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{
  "lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ai-timelines",
  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-forecasting"
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