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Summary
CSET is a \$100M+ Georgetown center with 50+ staff conducting data-driven AI policy research, particularly on U.S.-China competition and export controls. The center conducts hundreds of annual government briefings and operates the Emerging Technology Observatory with 10 public tools and 8 datasets.
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CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology)
Academic
CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology)
CSET is a \$100M+ Georgetown center with 50+ staff conducting data-driven AI policy research, particularly on U.S.-China competition and export controls. The center conducts hundreds of annual government briefings and operates the Emerging Technology Observatory with 10 public tools and 8 datasets.
TypeAcademic
3.8k words · 20 backlinks
Quick Assessment
Dimension
Assessment
Evidence
Policy Influence
Very High
Hundreds of government briefings annually, regular congressional testimony, research cited in export control decisions
Research Rigor
High
Data-driven methodology, 80+ annual publications, peer-reviewed work in major venues
Data Infrastructure
Very High
Emerging Technology Observatory with 10 public tools and 8 open datasets
China Expertise
Very High
In-house translation team, extensive Chinese-language research analysis
Funding Stability
Very High
$100M+ secured through 2025, diversified funding base
Georgetown University, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Washington D.C.
Structure
University research center, philanthropically funded
Staff Size
50+ full-time staff (as of July 2022)
Total Funding
$100M+ (2019-2025)
Primary Funder
Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100 (initial $15M, additional $12M+)
Secondary Funders
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Patrick J. McGovern Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Helen TonerPersonHelen TonerComprehensive biographical profile of Helen Toner documenting her career from EA Melbourne founder to CSET Interim Executive Director, with detailed timeline of the November 2023 OpenAI board crisi...Quality: 43/100 (Interim Executive Director, September 2025)
Founding Director
Jason Matheny (now White House OSTP)
Overview
The Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) is the largest AI policy research center in the United States, housed within Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service. Founded in January 2019 with a $15 million grant from Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100 (then Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100), CSET has grown to become a dominant force in shaping U.S. technology policy, particularly regarding artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and competition with China.
CSET's mission centers on providing decision-makers with data-driven analysis on the security implications of emerging technologies. Unlike many think tanks that rely primarily on qualitative policy analysis, CSET has invested heavily in data infrastructure and quantitative research capabilities. The organization's Emerging Technology Observatory (ETO) hosts 10 public tools and 8 open datasets, providing unprecedented visibility into global AI research, patenting, and investment trends.
The organization's theory of impact operates through multiple channels: direct policy engagement through congressional testimony and government briefings, open-source data tools that inform policy decisions, translation of Chinese-language documents to increase transparency about China's AI ambitions, and rigorous research publications that shape the intellectual framework for AI policy debates. In 2024 alone, CSET researchers conducted hundreds of briefings with government officials and industry leaders, testified before Congress multiple times, and published over 80 pieces of analysis.
CSET's work spans several interconnected research areas: the foundations of AI development (talent, data, and computing power), AI applications in national security contexts, U.S.-China technology competition, export controls and semiconductor policy, and increasingly, the security dimensions of biotechnology. This breadth of coverage, combined with deep technical expertise and strong government relationships, has made CSET an essential resource for policymakers navigating complex technology decisions.
History and Leadership
Founding (2019)
CSET was established through a major philanthropic initiative by Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100 (then Open Philanthropy), which recommended a $15 million grant over five years to Georgetown University specifically to create a new think tank at the intersection of national security and emerging technologies. The founding was motivated by a perceived gap in rigorous, technically-informed policy analysis on AI security issues.
Milestone
Date
Details
Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100 grant approved
January 2019
$15M over 5 years
CSET launched
January 2019
Jason Matheny as founding director
CyberAI Project launched
January 2020
Focus on AI/ML and cybersecurity
ETO launched
2022
Public data platform
Additional $12M secured
2023
Total funding exceeds $100M through 2025
Hewlett Foundation grant
2023
$3M additional for cyber and AI research ($5M total over 5 years)
Helen TonerPersonHelen TonerComprehensive biographical profile of Helen Toner documenting her career from EA Melbourne founder to CSET Interim Executive Director, with detailed timeline of the November 2023 OpenAI board crisi...Quality: 43/100 named Interim ED
September 2025
Dewey Murdick departs
Founding Director: Jason Matheny
Jason Gaverick Matheny served as CSET's founding director from 2019 until he joined the Biden administration. His background uniquely positioned him to bridge intelligence community expertise with academic research:
Role
Organization
Years
Director
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)
2015-2018
Assistant Director of National Intelligence
ODNI
Concurrent with IARPA
Research Affiliate
Future of Humanity InstituteOrganizationFuture of Humanity InstituteThe Future of Humanity Institute (2005-2024) was a pioneering Oxford research center that founded existential risk studies and AI alignment research, growing from 3 to ~50 researchers and receiving...Quality: 51/100, Oxford
Prior to IARPA
Founder
New Harvest (cellular agriculture research)
2004
Deputy Assistant to the President
White House
2021-2023
Deputy Director for National Security
OSTP
2021-2023
Matheny's transition to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, where he served as Deputy Director for National Security and Coordinator for Technology and National Security at the National Security Council, demonstrated CSET's success in placing personnel in key government positions.
Current Leadership: Helen Toner
Helen Toner was named Interim Executive Director effective September 2, 2025, succeeding Dewey Murdick. Toner was named to TIME magazine's list of the 100 most influential people in AI in 2024 and has been central to CSET's strategy and research agenda since its founding.
Attribute
Details
Education
MA in Security Studies (Georgetown), BSc in Chemical Engineering (Melbourne)
Previous Role
Senior Research Analyst, Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100
Research Focus
U.S.-China AI competition, AI safety and governance
Beijing Experience
Lived in Beijing studying Chinese AI ecosystem as Oxford GovAI affiliate
Publications
Foreign Affairs, The Economist, TIME
Congressional Testimony
Multiple committees including House Judiciary Subcommittee
Toner's appointment reflects CSET's dual focus on U.S.-China competition and AI safety/governance issues. Her experience at Coefficient Giving and Oxford's Centre for the Governance of AIOrganizationGovAIGovAI is an AI policy research organization with ~15-20 staff, funded primarily by Coefficient Giving (\$1.8M+ in 2023-2024), that has trained 100+ governance researchers through fellowships and cu...Quality: 43/100 positions her to bridge the AI safety and national security communities.
CSET's research is organized around several interconnected themes, with particular depth in areas where data analysis can inform policy decisions.
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U.S.-China Technology Competition
China analysis is central to CSET's mission, reflecting the organization's origins in concerns about AI-enabled competition between great powers.
Research Stream
Key Focus
Notable Outputs
Translation Program
Chinese-language AI policy documents
Generative AI safety standards, industrial policies, white papers
Workforce Analysis
China's AI talent pipeline
"Assessing China's AI Workforce" (cited by Nature)
Cognitive AI Research
China's AGI ambitions
Assessment of Chinese scientific literature on AGI
Embodied AI
Robotics and physical AI systems
Analysis of China's approach to physical AI agents
Export Control Impact
Effect of U.S. controls on Chinese AI
Huawei chip analysis (among top 4 most-read 2024 papers)
CSET maintains an in-house translation team that provides English versions of Chinese government policies, research papers, and technical standards. These Translation Snapshots have become essential resources for policymakers seeking to understand China's AI strategy without relying on machine translation.
AI Talent and Workforce
CSET has produced foundational research on AI workforce dynamics, particularly regarding the competition for talent between the U.S. and China.
Publication
Key Finding
Policy Impact
Assessing China's AI Workforce
China's AI talent pool larger than English sources suggest
Cited by Nature reporting on DeepSeek
AI Chip Workforce Analysis
Urgent U.S. need for semiconductor workers
Informed CHIPS Act workforce provisions
PATHWISE Tool
Maps AI talent across U.S. regions
Used for regional workforce planning
Education Executive Orders Analysis
Tracked Biden AI workforce EO implementation
Accountability framework for policy
CyberAI Project
Launched in January 2020 under the direction of retired Lt. General John Bansemer, the CyberAI Project examines the intersection of artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.
Research Area
Description
ML Vulnerabilities
Technical analysis of machine learning security weaknesses
Cyber Operations
AI/ML potential uses in offensive and defensive cyber
Disinformation
How AI may amplify future influence campaigns
Geostrategic Competition
U.S.-China dynamics in cyber and AI
The Hewlett Foundation awarded CSET an additional $3 million (for a total of $5 million over five years) to continue cyber and AI research, reflecting the strategic importance of this program.
Military AI Applications
CSET researchers analyze how AI is being integrated into military systems and operations.
Focus Area
Key Work
Project Maven
Analysis of how DOD operationalized AI
18th Airborne Corps
Case study of AI implementation
China's Military AI
Translation and analysis of PLA AI doctrine
Defense Procurement
Analysis of 2,857 AI-related defense contracts (2023-2024)
CSET's research on China's perspectives on AI warfare was among the four most widely read pieces in 2024, indicating strong demand for understanding adversary approaches to military AI.
Semiconductor and Export Control Policy
CSET has become a leading voice on semiconductor policy and export controls, areas of increasing policy importance.
Publication/Analysis
Impact
"No Permits, No Fabs"
Cited by Wall Street Journal
"AI Chips: What They Are and Why They Matter"
Referenced by Business Insider
Export Control Analysis
Op-eds warning against relaxing chip export controls
Huawei Chip Development
Analysis of how China circumvents U.S. controls
Jacob Feldgoise, Senior Data Research Analyst, specializes in AI chip supply chains and export controls, providing technical depth to CSET's policy analysis.
Emerging Technology Observatory (ETO)
The Emerging Technology Observatory represents CSET's most significant investment in data infrastructure, launched in 2022 to provide public access to emerging technology analysis tools.
ETO Tools and Datasets
Tool
Purpose
Key Features
AGORA
AI Governance and Regulatory Archive
Living collection of AI laws, regulations, standards worldwide
Country Activity Tracker
Global AI metrics
Research, patenting, investment by country
Map of Science
Research literature explorer
Trends and hotspots in S&T research
PATHWISE
Workforce mapping
AI talent metrics across U.S. regions
Scout
Chinese-language discovery
Finding Chinese writing on S&T
PARAT
Private-Sector AI Indicators
AI activity metrics for hundreds of companies
Metric
Value
Public Tools
10
Open Datasets
8
Legislative Analysis
147 AI-related laws (Jan 2020 - Mar 2025)
Company Coverage
Hundreds of firms, startups to multinationals
Data Methodology
CSET's merged corpus of scholarly literature intentionally incorporates the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), a key Chinese-language source, alongside English-language sources like Web of Science, Dimensions, Microsoft Academic Graph, arXiv, and Papers With Code. This methodological choice enables more accurate assessment of Chinese AI research output, revealing that China's lead in AI research is greater than English-only analyses suggest.
Policy Influence and Impact
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Congressional Testimony (2024-2025)
Date
Witness
Committee
Topic
November 2024
Sam Bresnick
Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law
China's Cybersecurity Threat
February 2025
Hanna Dohmen
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
Made in China 2025
May 2025
Helen Toner
House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, IP, AI, and the Internet
Frontier AI Security and Transparency
Government Engagement
In 2024, CSET researchers conducted hundreds of briefings with government officials and industry leaders. This includes:
Engagement Type
Details
Executive Branch
Briefings to agency leadership and staff
Congressional
Staff and member briefings, testimony
Industry
Engagement with technology companies
Workshops
Building the Tech Coalition conference ("best and most uniquely hard-hitting defense AI event")
Media Influence
CSET researchers regularly publish op-eds and provide expert commentary:
Outlet
Topics
The Hill
Export control policy, state AI regulation preemption
Wall Street Journal
Cited on semiconductor policy
Business Insider
AI chip analysis
Science News
Federal AI integration risks
Foreign Affairs
U.S.-China competition (Helen Toner)
The Economist
AI policy (Helen Toner)
Regulatory Input
Action
Date
Details
BIS Comment
January 2024
Response to proposed export control rules
AI Action Plan Analysis
2025
Assessment of federal AI integration risks
State Preemption Opposition
June 2025
Op-ed cautioning against 10-year state AI regulation ban
Key Publications
Most-Read 2024 Publications
Title
Topic
Significance
How Large Language Models Work
Technical explainer
Foundational AI education for policymakers
Project Maven and 18th Airborne Corps Analysis
Military AI operationalization
Case study of DOD AI implementation
China's Perspectives on AI Warfare
PLA AI doctrine
Understanding adversary military AI thinking
Huawei AI Chip Analysis
Export control circumvention
Timely analysis of China's response to U.S. controls
Major Research Series
Series
Description
Translation Snapshots
Short posts highlighting related Chinese document translations
AI Governance at the Frontier
Governance frameworks for advanced AI
When AI Builds AI
AI automation of AI R&D
U.S. AI Statecraft
Strategic AI policy recommendations
2024-2025 Publication Statistics
Metric
Value
Total Publications (2024)
80+
Translations
Dozens
Congressional Testimonies
Multiple
Conference Events
Building the Tech Coalition and others
Funding
Coefficient Giving Support
Grant
Date
Amount
Purpose
Founding Grant
January 2019
$15,000,000
Launch CSET (5 years)
General Support
August 2021
$18,920,000
Core operations (3 years)
Additional Support
2023
$1,000,000
General support
Total Coefficient Giving
$100M+
Through 2025
Other Funders
Funder
Amount
Purpose
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
$5M (over 5 years)
Cyber and AI research
Patrick J. McGovern Foundation
Undisclosed
General support
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Undisclosed
General support
Public Interest Technology University Network
Undisclosed
General support
Funding Sustainability
CSET has secured funding through 2025, with the 2023 grant agreement boosting total funding to more than $100 million. The organization is self-funded through this period, providing stability for long-term research programs.
Comparison with Peer Organizations
Organization
Focus
Staff
Budget
Policy Access
Geographic Focus
CSET
AI national security, data analysis
50+
$100M+ (5yr)
Very High (US)
U.S., China
GovAI
AI governance theory
≈20
≈$1M/yr
High (UK/EU)
UK, EU, US
RAND AI
Broad AI policy
≈30
≈$1M+
High (US)
Global
CNAS
Defense technology
≈40
≈$10M
High (US)
U.S., allies
Brookings AI
Economic/governance
≈10
≈$1M
Medium
Global
Distinctive Strengths
Dimension
CSET Advantage
Data Infrastructure
ETO provides unique quantitative capabilities
China Expertise
In-house translation, CNKI integration
Scale
50+ staff, $100M+ funding
University Affiliation
Academic credibility, graduate student pipeline
Leadership Rotation
Personnel moving to senior government roles
Notable Researchers and Staff
CSET maintains a team of 50+ researchers with diverse backgrounds spanning intelligence, military, academia, and the technology industry.
Data Transparency: Open datasets and documented methodology
Peer Review: Academic-style review processes
Government Feedback: Regular engagement with end-users in government
Public Accessibility: ETO tools freely available
Impact Case Studies
Export Control Policy
CSET's research on AI chips and export controls has directly influenced policy debates:
Timeline
CSET Action
Policy Outcome
2022-2023
Published AI chip analysis and supply chain research
Informed BIS export control rulemaking
January 2024
Submitted comments opposing certain proposed controls
DOC considered recommendations
2024
Published Huawei chip circumvention analysis
Congressional awareness of control limitations
2025
Op-eds warning against relaxing chip controls
Public debate on control effectiveness
China AI Assessment
CSET's China analysis has reshaped understanding of Chinese AI capabilities:
Finding
Significance
Citation
China's AI research lead larger than English sources suggest
Corrected underestimation of Chinese output
Nature (DeepSeek coverage)
Chinese AGI intentions validated by scientific literature
Confirmed stated policy goals are backed by research
CSET cognitive AI report
PLA actively acquiring U.S. semiconductors
Evidence of export control circumvention
The Hill op-ed
AI Workforce Policy
Initiative
CSET Contribution
Impact
CHIPS Act workforce provisions
Research on semiconductor workforce decline
Legislative language
Biden AI workforce EOs
Tracking implementation and gaps
Accountability framework
Regional talent development
PATHWISE tool deployment
State and local planning
Strategic Assessment
Strengths
Data-Driven Methodology: ETO and quantitative research provide unique policy insights not available from traditional think tanks
China Expertise: Translation program and Chinese-language data integration offer unparalleled visibility into Chinese AI development
Funding Stability: $100M+ through 2025 enables long-term research investments
Government Access: Hundreds of annual briefings, regular congressional testimony, alumni in senior positions
University Integration: Georgetown affiliation provides academic credibility and talent pipeline
Limitations
U.S. Focus: Less engagement with non-U.S. governments compared to organizations like GovAI
Security Emphasis: National security framing may limit engagement with AI safety community
Funder Concentration: Heavy reliance on Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100, though diversifying
Political Transitions: Changes in administration affect policy relevance and access
AI Risk Activation Timeline ModelAnalysisAI Risk Activation Timeline ModelComprehensive framework mapping AI risk activation windows with specific probability assessments: current risks already active (disinformation 95%+, spear phishing active), near-term critical windo...Quality: 66/100AI Risk Portfolio AnalysisAnalysisAI Risk Portfolio AnalysisQuantitative portfolio framework recommending AI safety resource allocation: 40-70% to misalignment, 15-35% to misuse, 10-25% to structural risks, varying by timeline. Based on 2024 funding analysi...Quality: 64/100International AI Coordination Game ModelAnalysisInternational AI Coordination Game ModelGame-theoretic analysis demonstrating that US-China AI coordination defaults to mutual defection (racing) because defection dominates when cooperation probability falls below 50%, with current esti...Quality: 59/100
Policy
International Compute RegimesPolicyInternational Compute RegimesComprehensive analysis of international AI compute governance finds 10-25% chance of meaningful regimes by 2035, but potential for 30-60% reduction in racing dynamics if achieved. First binding tre...Quality: 67/100Compute GovernancePolicyCompute GovernanceThis is a comprehensive overview of U.S. AI chip export controls policy, documenting the evolution from blanket restrictions to case-by-case licensing while highlighting significant enforcement cha...Quality: 58/100
Organizations
ControlAIOrganizationControlAIControlAI is a UK-based advocacy organization that has achieved notable policy engagement success (briefing 150+ lawmakers, securing support from 100+ UK parliamentarians) while promoting direct in...Quality: 63/100SamotsvetyOrganizationSamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed \$4B+ in grants since 2014, including \$336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~\$50M on AI safety in 2024...Quality: 55/100Future of Humanity InstituteOrganizationFuture of Humanity InstituteThe Future of Humanity Institute (2005-2024) was a pioneering Oxford research center that founded existential risk studies and AI alignment research, growing from 3 to ~50 researchers and receiving...Quality: 51/100EA GlobalOrganizationEA GlobalEA Global is a series of selective conferences organized by the Centre for Effective Altruism that connects committed EA practitioners to collaborate on global challenges, with AI safety becoming i...Quality: 38/100Johns Hopkins Center for Health SecurityOrganizationJohns Hopkins Center for Health SecurityThe Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security is a well-established biosecurity organization that has significantly influenced US policy on pandemic preparedness and biological threats, with recent ...Quality: 63/100
Risks
AI ProliferationRiskAI ProliferationAI proliferation accelerated dramatically as the capability gap narrowed from 18 to 6 months (2022-2024), with open-source models like DeepSeek R1 now matching frontier performance. US export contr...Quality: 60/100AI DisinformationRiskAI DisinformationPost-2024 analysis shows AI disinformation had limited immediate electoral impact (cheap fakes used 7x more than AI content), but creates concerning long-term epistemic erosion with 82% higher beli...Quality: 54/100AI Knowledge MonopolyRiskAI Knowledge MonopolyAnalyzes the risk that 2-3 AI systems could dominate humanity's knowledge access by 2040, projecting 80%+ market concentration with correlated errors and epistemic lock-in. Provides comprehensive m...Quality: 50/100
Other
Nuño SemperePersonNuño SempereNuño Sempere is a Spanish superforecaster who co-founded the highly successful Samotsvety forecasting group and now runs Sentinel for global catastrophe early warning, while being known for skeptic...Quality: 50/100Issa RicePersonIssa RiceIssa Rice is an independent researcher who has created valuable knowledge infrastructure tools like Timelines Wiki and AI Watch for the EA and AI safety communities, though his work focuses on data...Quality: 45/100Holden KarnofskyPersonHolden KarnofskyHolden Karnofsky directed \$300M+ in AI safety funding through Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy), growing the field from ~20 to 400+ FTE researchers and developing influential framewo...Quality: 40/100
Concepts
Safety Orgs OverviewSafety Orgs OverviewA well-organized reference overview of ~20 AI safety organizations categorized by function (alignment research, policy, field-building), with a comparative budget/headcount table showing estimated ...Quality: 48/100