Manifold (Prediction Market)

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  "llmSummary": "Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with systematic gaps due to lower liquidity and financial incentives.",
  "description": "Manifold is a play-money prediction market platform founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen (ex-Google) and brothers James and Stephen Grugett (CEO). Users trade using Mana currency on thousands of user-created markets covering AI timelines, politics, technology, and more. The platform has facilitated millions of predictions with ~2,000 daily active users at peak, though activity declined in 2025. Key innovations include permissionless market creation, social forecasting features, leagues, and the annual Manifest conference (250 attendees in 2023, 600 in 2024). 2024 election analysis showed Polymarket outperformed Manifold (Brier scores 0.0296 vs 0.0342), though Manifold remained competitive. Funded by FTX Future Fund (1.5M USD), SFF (340K USD+), and ACX Grants. Real-money Sweepcash was sunset March 2025 to refocus on core play-money platform.",
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      "text": "higher than Metaculus",
      "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dRbvHfEwb6Cuf6xn3/forecasting-agi-insights-from-prediction-markets-and-1",
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      "text": "Forecasting AGI: Insights from Prediction Markets (LessWrong)",
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No external links