Manifold (Prediction Market)

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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with systematic gaps due to lower liquidity and financial incentives.",
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