Samotsvety

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  "title": "Samotsvety",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Elite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by 2030, 60% by 2050, and 25% misaligned AI takeover by 2100. Their work is widely cited in EA/rationalist circles but faces criticisms around methodology (overreliance on base rates for nuclear risk), selection bias (EA skew), and fundamental limits of forecasting novel events.",
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        "title": "Good Judgment (Forecasting)",
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No external links