Samotsvety

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  "title": "Samotsvety",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-04-09",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Elite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by 2030, 60% by 2050, and 25% misaligned AI takeover by 2100. Their work is widely cited in EA/rationalist circles but faces criticisms around methodology (overreliance on base rates for nuclear risk), selection bias (EA skew), and fundamental limits of forecasting novel events.",
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      "url": "https://samotsvety.org/blog/2024/10/22/p-calamity/",
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      "resourceTitle": "Samotsvety Probabilities for Potential Precursors of Existential Risk"
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      "resourceId": "d345d13039449efe",
      "resourceTitle": "Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022"
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No external links