Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)

{
  "id": "sentinel",
  "wikiId": "E566",
  "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/sentinel/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/organizations/sentinel.mdx",
  "title": "Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)",
  "quality": 39,
  "readerImportance": 28.5,
  "researchImportance": 45,
  "tacticalValue": null,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-02-23",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Sentinel is a catastrophic risk foresight organization co-founded by Nuño Sempere and Rai Sur, operating informally from around 2023 and incorporated as a US 501(c)(3) nonprofit in or after late 2024. It combines AI-powered news filtering with probabilistic human forecaster assessment to produce weekly risk briefings. Its multi-stage pipeline parses millions of news items, uses LLMs for triage, and routes flagged signals to forecasters drawn from groups including Samotsvety and Good Judgment. Outputs include a Substack newsletter at blog.sentinel-team.org and the Sentinel Minutes podcast. The organization has approximately \\$700K of a ~\\$1.6M target budget as of November 2025 and has grown its newsletter from 552 to 3,936 subscribers since its first major public fundraise in November 2024.",
  "description": "Global catastrophic risk foresight and early warning organization co-founded by Nuño Sempere, providing weekly risk assessments from experienced forecasters",
  "ratings": {
    "focus": 8.5,
    "novelty": 2,
    "rigor": 3,
    "completeness": 6,
    "concreteness": 4.5,
    "actionability": 1.5
  },
  "category": "organizations",
  "subcategory": "epistemic-orgs",
  "clusters": [
    "epistemics",
    "community",
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 2055,
    "tableCount": 5,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 26,
    "externalLinks": 14,
    "footnoteCount": 20,
    "bulletRatio": 0.12,
    "sectionCount": 15,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 15
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 100,
  "updateFrequency": 45,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 2055,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "sentinel-team.org",
      "url": "https://sentinel-team.org",
      "resourceId": "935141a221e0be3c",
      "resourceTitle": "Sentinel"
    },
    {
      "text": "sentinel-team.org",
      "url": "https://sentinel-team.org",
      "resourceId": "935141a221e0be3c",
      "resourceTitle": "Sentinel"
    },
    {
      "text": "EA Forum post",
      "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GAFwc5jGFjqSetJiu/sentinel-early-detection-and-response-for-global",
      "resourceId": "89d7870fee4ff3b2",
      "resourceTitle": "Sentinel: Early Detection and Response for Global Catastrophes"
    },
    {
      "text": "Metaforecast.org",
      "url": "https://metaforecast.org/",
      "resourceId": "19de440c5df41ad8",
      "resourceTitle": "Metaforecast – Prediction Market Aggregator"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 4,
  "convertedLinkCount": 0,
  "backlinkCount": 4,
  "citationHealth": {
    "total": 1,
    "withQuotes": 1,
    "verified": 1,
    "accuracyChecked": 1,
    "accurate": 1,
    "inaccurate": 0,
    "avgScore": 1
  },
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 60,
    "factors": [
      "biographical-claims",
      "low-rigor-score",
      "low-quality-score",
      "well-cited"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "organization",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 15,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "swift-centre",
        "title": "Swift Centre",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/swift-centre/",
        "similarity": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "nuno-sempere",
        "title": "Nuño Sempere",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/people/nuno-sempere/",
        "similarity": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "ea-longtermist-wins-losses",
        "title": "EA and Longtermist Wins and Losses",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/history/ea-longtermist-wins-losses/",
        "similarity": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "cais",
        "title": "Center for AI Safety (CAIS)",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/cais/",
        "similarity": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "centre-for-long-term-resilience",
        "title": "Centre for Long-Term Resilience",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/centre-for-long-term-resilience/",
        "similarity": 13
      }
    ]
  },
  "changeHistory": [
    {
      "date": "2026-02-23",
      "branch": "feat/batch-improve-high-risk-pages",
      "title": "Auto-improve (standard): Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)",
      "summary": "Improved \"Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)\" via standard pipeline (1475.3s). Quality score: 76. Issues resolved: Footnote [^17] references a podcast transcript as evidence t; The mermaid diagram and the numbered list (steps 1–4) immedi; The 'Overview' section repeats the Scott Alexander quote and.",
      "duration": "1475.3s",
      "cost": "$5-8"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 11,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 8,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 16,
      "externalLinks": 10,
      "footnotes": 6,
      "references": 6
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 5,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 26,
      "externalLinks": 14,
      "footnotes": 20,
      "references": 2,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 1,
      "quotesTotal": 1,
      "accuracyChecked": 1,
      "accuracyTotal": 1
    },
    "items": {
      "summary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "green",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "amber",
      "diagrams": "green",
      "internalLinks": "green",
      "externalLinks": "green",
      "footnotes": "green",
      "references": "amber",
      "quotes": "green",
      "accuracy": "green"
    },
    "editHistoryCount": 1,
    "ratingsString": "N:2 R:3 A:1.5 C:6"
  },
  "readerRank": 460,
  "researchRank": 304,
  "recommendedScore": 96.73
}

No external links