Track Records (Overview)
This section documents the epistemic track records of influential figures in AI. Understanding where experts have been right or wrong—and their patterns of over/underconfidence—helps calibrate how much weight to give their current views.
Available Track Records
| Person | Summary | Key Pattern |
|---|---|---|
| Yann LeCun | Strong on long-term architectural intuitions; underestimates near-term LLM capabilities | Consistent skeptic |
| Sam Altman | Directionally correct on AI trajectory; overoptimistic on specific timelines | Safety rhetoric vs. deployment tension |
| Eliezer Yudkowsky | Early timeline errors; vindicated on AI generalization; core doom predictions unfalsifiable | Updated from early overconfidence |
| Elon Musk | Prescient safety warnings; consistently missed product timelines by 6+ years | Shifting goalposts |
Methodology
Each track record page documents:
- Resolved predictions - Claims that can now be evaluated with ✅/❌/⚠️ status
- Pending predictions - Testable claims with target dates
- Unfalsifiable claims - Positions that cannot be empirically tested
- Accuracy analysis - Patterns of where the person is right/wrong
- Position evolution - How their views have changed over time
All claims include source citations where available.