Back
Philip E. Tetlock - Wikipedia
referenceCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Wikipedia
Tetlock's forecasting research is frequently cited in AI safety contexts for improving calibration, evaluating predictions about AI timelines, and informing better epistemic practices in policy and risk assessment.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100wiki pagereference
Summary
Wikipedia biography of Philip Tetlock, a prominent psychologist known for his research on expert political judgment, forecasting accuracy, and the superforecasting methodology. His work demonstrates that structured, probabilistic thinking and calibrated uncertainty significantly outperform traditional expert prediction, with implications for decision-making under uncertainty in high-stakes domains including AI governance.
Key Points
- •Tetlock's 20-year study showed expert political predictions were barely better than chance, published in 'Expert Political Judgment' (2005)
- •Developed the 'superforecasting' framework, identifying traits of unusually accurate forecasters including active open-mindedness and calibration
- •Co-authored 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' with Dan Gardner, popularizing probabilistic reasoning
- •His Good Judgment Project demonstrated that aggregating forecasts from trained amateurs can outperform intelligence analysts
- •His work is highly relevant to AI safety evaluation, forecasting AI timelines, and improving epistemic practices in governance
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) | Organization | 55.0 |
| Philip Tetlock | Person | 73.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 9, 202630 KB
Philip E. Tetlock - Wikipedia
Jump to content
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Canadian-American political scientist (born 1954)
This biography of a living person relies too much on references to primary sources . Please help by adding secondary or tertiary sources . Contentious material about living persons that is unsourced or poorly sourced must be removed immediately , especially if potentially libelous or harmful.
Find sources:   "Philip E. Tetlock"  –  news   · newspapers   · books   · scholar   · JSTOR ( September 2018 ) ( Learn how and when to remove this message )
Philip E. Tetlock Tetlock at the 2017 World Economic Forum Born ( 1954-03-02 ) March 2, 1954 (age 72) [ 2 ]
Toronto , Ontario , Canada Alma mater University of British Columbia ( BA , MA )
Yale University ( PhD ) Scientific career Fields political forecasting , political psychology , forecasting , decision making Institutions University of Pennsylvania
University of California, Berkeley
Ohio State University Thesis Attributions As Interpersonal Acts   (1979) Doctoral advisor Phoebe C. Ellsworth [ 1 ] Other academic advisors Peter Suedfeld [ 2 ] Doctoral students Jennifer Lerner
Linda Skitka
Welton Chang
Philip Eyrikson Tetlock [ 3 ] (born March 2, 1954) is a Canadian-American political psychologist and writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania , where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences . He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.
He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History ; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project , a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events.
Biography
[ edit ]
Tetlock was born in Toronto, Canada and grew up in Winnipeg and Vancouver. He studied psychology at the University of British Columbia , where he received a B.A. in 1975 and an M.A. in 1976. He worked with Peter Suedfeld during his master's study on content analysis of diplomatic communications. [ 2 ] [ 4 ] He then moved to the US and conducted his doctoral research at Yale University , obtaining his PhD in psychology in 1979. His thesis was supervised by Phoebe C. Ellsworth . [ 1 ]
Tetlock has served on the faculty of the University of California,
... (truncated, 30 KB total)Resource ID:
db2af50cd08e3e4a | Stable ID: OTE4NzcwNm