Metaculus
metaculusorganizationPath: /knowledge-base/organizations/metaculus/
E199Entity ID (EID)
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"summary": "Metaculus is a reputation-based forecasting platform with 1M+ predictions showing AGI probability at 25% by 2027 and 50% by 2031 (down from 50 years away in 2020). Analysis finds good short-term calibration (Brier 0.107) but poor calibration on 1+ year horizons; human Pro Forecasters consistently outperform AI bots (p=0.00001 in Q2 2025).",
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"text": "rewrote their website code and released it under the BSD-2-Clause License",
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| id | title | type | relationship |
|---|---|---|---|
| critical-uncertainties | AI Risk Critical Uncertainties Model | crux | — |
| agi-timeline | AGI Timeline | concept | — |
| philip-tetlock | Philip Tetlock | person | — |
| case-for-xrisk | The Case FOR AI Existential Risk | argument | — |
| is-ai-xrisk-real | Is AI Existential Risk Real? | crux | — |
| agi-development | AGI Development | concept | — |
| __index__/knowledge-base/forecasting | Forecasting | concept | — |
| novel-unknown | Novel / Unknown Approaches | capability | — |
| ai-timelines | AI Timelines | concept | — |
| capability-alignment-race | Capability-Alignment Race Model | analysis | — |
| risk-activation-timeline | Risk Activation Timeline Model | analysis | — |
| arb-research | Arb Research | organization | — |
| bridgewater-aia-labs | Bridgewater AIA Labs | organization | — |
| epistemic-orgs-overview | Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations (Overview) | concept | — |
| epoch-ai | Epoch AI | organization | — |
| fli | Future of Life Institute (FLI) | organization | — |
| fri | Forecasting Research Institute | organization | — |
| futuresearch | FutureSearch | organization | — |
| good-judgment | Good Judgment (Forecasting) | organization | — |
| lightning-rod-labs | Lightning Rod Labs | organization | — |
| polymarket | Polymarket | organization | — |
| rethink-priorities | Rethink Priorities | organization | — |
| samotsvety | Samotsvety | organization | — |
| sentinel | Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight) | organization | — |
| eli-lifland | Eli Lifland | person | — |
| issa-rice | Issa Rice | person | — |
| ai-forecasting-benchmark | AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament | project | — |
| ai-forecasting | AI-Augmented Forecasting | approach | — |
| collective-epistemics-design-sketches | Design Sketches for Collective Epistemics | approach | — |
| forecastbench | ForecastBench | project | — |
| metaforecast | Metaforecast | project | — |
| prediction-markets | Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting) | approach | — |
| reliability-tracking | AI System Reliability Tracking | approach | — |
| xpt | XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament) | project | — |
| long-timelines | Long-Timelines Technical Worldview | concept | — |