Metaculus

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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Metaculus is a reputation-based forecasting platform with 1M+ predictions showing AGI probability at 25% by 2027 and 50% by 2031 (down from 50 years away in 2020). Analysis finds good short-term calibration (Brier 0.107) but poor calibration on 1+ year horizons; human Pro Forecasters consistently outperform AI bots (p=0.00001 in Q2 2025).",
  "description": "Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts. With over 1 million predictions across 15,000+ questions, Metaculus community forecasts show AGI probability at 25% by 2027 and 50% by 2031—down from 50 years away in 2020. Their aggregation algorithm consistently outperforms median forecasts on Brier and Log scoring rules. Founded in 2015 by Anthony Aguirre, Greg Laughlin, and Max Wainwright, Metaculus received USD 8.5M+ from Coefficient Giving (2022-2023) and partners with Good Judgment Inc and Bridgewater Associates on forecasting competitions.",
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      "text": "Forecastingaifutures.substack.com",
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      "text": "announced their first formal collaboration",
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      "text": "AGI Dashboard",
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      "text": "Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus Launch First Collaboration",
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      "text": "Shrinking AGI timelines: a review of expert forecasts | 80,000 Hours",
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