Skip to content
Longterm Wiki has not been actively maintained since May 2026. Some data is still updated occasionally, but please don't rely on this site being current or accurate.
Longterm Wiki

Mesa-Optimization

mesa-optimizationriskPath: /knowledge-base/risks/mesa-optimization/
E197Entity ID (EID)
← Back to page32 backlinksQuality: 63Updated: 2026-01-29
Page Recorddatabase.json — merged from MDX frontmatter + Entity YAML + computed metrics at build time
{
  "id": "mesa-optimization",
  "wikiId": "E197",
  "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/mesa-optimization/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/risks/mesa-optimization.mdx",
  "title": "Mesa-Optimization",
  "quality": 63,
  "readerImportance": 18.5,
  "researchImportance": 85,
  "tacticalValue": null,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "causalLevel": "pathway",
  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-29",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Mesa-optimization—where AI systems develop internal optimizers with different objectives than training goals—shows concerning empirical evidence: Claude exhibited alignment faking in 12-78% of monitored cases (2024), and deliberative alignment reduced scheming by 30× but couldn't eliminate it. Current detection methods achieve >99% AUROC on known deceptive behaviors, but adversarial robustness remains untested, with expert probability estimates for advanced AI mesa-optimization ranging 20-70%.",
  "description": "The risk that AI systems may develop internal optimizers with objectives different from their training objectives.",
  "ratings": {
    "novelty": 4.5,
    "rigor": 6.8,
    "completeness": 7.5,
    "actionability": 5.2
  },
  "category": "risks",
  "subcategory": "accident",
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 4335,
    "tableCount": 12,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 40,
    "externalLinks": 14,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.08,
    "sectionCount": 31,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 15
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 100,
  "updateFrequency": 45,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 4335,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "Future of Life Institute's 2025 AI Safety Index",
      "url": "https://futureoflife.org/ai-safety-index-summer-2025/",
      "resourceId": "df46edd6fa2078d1",
      "resourceTitle": "FLI AI Safety Index Summer 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "Frontier Models Scheming",
      "url": "https://www.apolloresearch.ai/research/",
      "resourceId": "560dff85b3305858",
      "resourceTitle": "Apollo Research — Research Overview"
    },
    {
      "text": "Deliberative Alignment",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/detecting-and-reducing-scheming-in-ai-models/",
      "resourceId": "b3f335edccfc5333",
      "resourceTitle": "OpenAI Preparedness Framework"
    },
    {
      "text": "Palisade Chess Study",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment",
      "resourceId": "c799d5e1347e4372",
      "resourceTitle": "AI Alignment - Wikipedia"
    },
    {
      "text": "Apollo Research",
      "url": "https://www.apolloresearch.ai/research/",
      "resourceId": "560dff85b3305858",
      "resourceTitle": "Apollo Research — Research Overview"
    },
    {
      "text": "Palisade Research",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment",
      "resourceId": "c799d5e1347e4372",
      "resourceTitle": "AI Alignment - Wikipedia"
    },
    {
      "text": "OpenAI partners with Apollo",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/detecting-and-reducing-scheming-in-ai-models/",
      "resourceId": "b3f335edccfc5333",
      "resourceTitle": "OpenAI Preparedness Framework"
    },
    {
      "text": "Future of Life AI Safety Index",
      "url": "https://futureoflife.org/ai-safety-index-summer-2025/",
      "resourceId": "df46edd6fa2078d1",
      "resourceTitle": "FLI AI Safety Index Summer 2025"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 8,
  "convertedLinkCount": 25,
  "backlinkCount": 32,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 55,
    "factors": [
      "no-citations"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "risk",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 24,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "scheming",
        "title": "Scheming",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/scheming/",
        "similarity": 24
      },
      {
        "id": "goal-misgeneralization",
        "title": "Goal Misgeneralization",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/goal-misgeneralization/",
        "similarity": 23
      },
      {
        "id": "sharp-left-turn",
        "title": "Sharp Left Turn",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/sharp-left-turn/",
        "similarity": 22
      },
      {
        "id": "sleeper-agent-detection",
        "title": "Sleeper Agent Detection",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/responses/sleeper-agent-detection/",
        "similarity": 21
      },
      {
        "id": "treacherous-turn",
        "title": "Treacherous Turn",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/treacherous-turn/",
        "similarity": 21
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 6,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 17,
      "diagrams": 2,
      "internalLinks": 35,
      "externalLinks": 22,
      "footnotes": 13,
      "references": 13
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 12,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 40,
      "externalLinks": 14,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 13,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "summary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "amber",
      "diagrams": "amber",
      "internalLinks": "green",
      "externalLinks": "amber",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "green",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "ratingsString": "N:4.5 R:6.8 A:5.2 C:7.5"
  },
  "readerRank": 528,
  "researchRank": 58,
  "recommendedScore": 139.41
}
External Links
{
  "wikipedia": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment#Mesa-optimization",
  "lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/mesa-optimization",
  "stampy": "https://aisafety.info/questions/8V5k/What-is-mesa-optimization",
  "alignmentForum": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/mesa-optimization"
}
Backlinks (32)
idtitletyperelationship
accident-risksAI Accident Risk Cruxescrux—
deceptive-alignment-decompositionDeceptive Alignment Decomposition Modelanalysisrelated
mesa-optimization-analysisMesa-Optimization Risk Analysisanalysisanalyzes
deceptive-alignmentDeceptive Alignmentrisk—
goal-misgeneralizationGoal Misgeneralizationrisk—
schemingSchemingrisk—
sharp-left-turnSharp Left Turnrisk—
__index__/knowledge-base/cruxesKey Cruxesconcept—
why-alignment-hardWhy Alignment Might Be Hardargument—
deep-learning-eraDeep Learning Revolution (2012-2020)historical—
early-warningsEarly Warnings (1950s-2000)historical—
__index__/knowledge-baseKnowledge Baseconcept—
compounding-risks-analysisCompounding Risks Analysisanalysis—
goal-misgeneralization-probabilityGoal Misgeneralization Probability Modelanalysis—
instrumental-convergence-frameworkInstrumental Convergence Frameworkanalysis—
risk-interaction-networkRisk Interaction Networkanalysis—
scheming-likelihood-modelScheming Likelihood Assessmentanalysis—
eliezer-yudkowsky-predictionsEliezer Yudkowsky: Track Recordconcept—
evan-hubingerEvan Hubingerperson—
robin-hansonRobin Hansonperson—
toby-ordToby Ordperson—
agent-foundationsAgent Foundationsapproach—
ai-controlAI Controlresearch-area—
alignment-evalsAlignment Evaluationsapproach—
alignmentAI Alignmentapproach—
interpretabilityMechanistic Interpretabilityresearch-area—
mech-interpMechanistic Interpretabilityresearch-area—
scheming-detectionScheming & Deception Detectionapproach—
sparse-autoencodersSparse Autoencoders (SAEs)approach—
accident-overviewAccident Risks (Overview)concept—
__index__/knowledge-base/risksAI Risksconcept—
steganographyAI Model Steganographyrisk—