Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting)

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  "summary": "Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling \\$1-3B annually. For AI safety, they provide useful near-term forecasting (70% accuracy on 1-year policy questions) but struggle with long-horizon questions due to thin liquidity, high discount rates, and definitional ambiguity.",
  "description": "Market mechanisms for aggregating probabilistic beliefs, showing 60-75% superior accuracy vs polls (Brier scores 0.16-0.24) with \\$1-3B annual volumes. Applications include AI timeline forecasting, policy evaluation, and epistemic infrastructure.",
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