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First functional futarchy governance on mainnet. Participants trade on prediction markets about whether proposals will increase token value, replacing traditional voting. Generates ~$4,825/day in revenue. 11 projects using "Futarchy as a Service."
First DAO implementing functional futarchy governance on mainnet (Solana). Instead of token-holder voting, participants trade on prediction markets about whether proposals will increase token value. Generates ~$4,825/day revenue. Paradigm has invested. Multiple projects using "Futarchy as a Service" including Drift, Jito, Sanctum.
The US AI Safety Institute (US AISI), renamed to the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) in June 2025, is a government agency within the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) established in 2023 to develop standards, evaluations, and guidelines for safe and trustworthy artificial intelligence.
Professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Expert on democracy, governance, and civic participation. Studies how institutional design affects public engagement and accountability.
Yoshua Bengio is a pioneer of deep learning who shared the 2018 Turing Award with Geoffrey Hinton and Yann LeCun for their foundational work on neural networks. As Scientific Director of Mila, the Quebec AI Institute, he leads one of the world's largest academic AI research centers. His technical contributions include fundamental work on neural network optimization, recurrent networks, and attention mechanisms.
In recent years, Bengio has increasingly focused on AI safety and governance. He was an early signatory of the 2023 Statement on AI Risk and has become a prominent voice arguing that frontier AI development requires more caution and oversight. His concerns span both near-term harms (misinformation, job displacement) and longer-term risks from systems that might become difficult to control. Unlike some AI researchers who dismiss existential risk concerns, Bengio has engaged seriously with these arguments.
Bengio's research agenda has evolved to include safety-relevant directions like causal representation learning, which could help AI systems develop more robust and generalizable understanding of the world. He has advocated for international governance mechanisms for AI, including proposals for compute governance and safety standards. His position as one of the founding figures of modern AI gives his safety advocacy significant weight with policymakers and the broader research community.
Dispute resolution mechanism for prediction markets. Assertions assumed true unless challenged. Now using LLMs to propose and dispute data. >99% accuracy. Primary resolution layer for Polymarket.
Framework by Aviv Ovadya and 13 co-authors for evaluating the degree to which decisions in a given domain are made democratically. Provides milestones toward meaningfully democratic AI. Published November 2024 (arxiv 2411.09222).
AI Safety CasesApproachAI Safety CasesSafety cases are structured arguments adapted from nuclear/aviation to justify AI system safety, with UK AISI publishing templates in 2024 and 3 of 4 frontier labs committing to implementation. Apo...Quality: 91/100AI-Augmented ForecastingApproachAI-Augmented ForecastingAI-augmented forecasting combines AI computational strengths with human judgment, achieving 5-15% Brier score improvements and 50-200x cost reductions compared to human-only forecasting. However, A...Quality: 54/100AI EvaluationApproachAI EvaluationComprehensive overview of AI evaluation methods spanning dangerous capability assessment, safety properties, and deception detection, with categorized frameworks from industry (Anthropic Constituti...Quality: 72/100Third-Party Model AuditingApproachThird-Party Model AuditingThird-party auditing organizations (METR, Apollo, UK/US AISIs) now evaluate all major frontier models pre-deployment, discovering that AI task horizons double every 7 months (GPT-5: 2h17m), 5/6 mod...Quality: 64/100
Organizations
US AI Safety Institute (now CAISI)OrganizationUS AI Safety Institute (now CAISI)The US AI Safety Institute (AISI), established November 2023 within NIST with $10M budget (FY2025 request $82.7M), conducted pre-deployment evaluations of frontier models through MOUs with OpenAI a...Quality: 91/100
Risks
AI Authoritarian ToolsRiskAI Authoritarian ToolsComprehensive analysis documenting AI-enabled authoritarian tools across surveillance (350M+ cameras in China analyzing 25.9M faces daily per district), censorship (22+ countries mandating AI conte...Quality: 91/100AI-Driven Institutional Decision CaptureRiskAI-Driven Institutional Decision CaptureComprehensive analysis of how AI systems could capture institutional decision-making across healthcare, criminal justice, hiring, and governance through systematic biases. Documents 85% racial bias...Quality: 73/100Compute ConcentrationRiskCompute ConcentrationAll six major AI infrastructure spenders (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, xAI) are US companies subject to CLOUD Act and FISA 702, giving the US government effective legal access to the ...Quality: 70/100AI Development Racing DynamicsRiskAI Development Racing DynamicsRacing dynamics analysis shows competitive pressure has shortened safety evaluation timelines by 40-60% since ChatGPT's launch, with commercial labs reducing safety work from 12 weeks to 4-6 weeks....Quality: 72/100
Concepts
AGI TimelineConceptAGI TimelineComprehensive synthesis of AGI timeline forecasts showing dramatic acceleration: expert median dropped from 2061 (2018) to 2047 (2023), Metaculus from 50 years to 5 years since 2020, with current p...Quality: 59/100Governance-Focused WorldviewConceptGovernance-Focused WorldviewThis worldview argues governance/coordination is the bottleneck for AI safety (not just technical solutions), estimating 10-30% P(doom) by 2100. Evidence includes: compute export controls reduced H...Quality: 67/100
Analysis
OpenAI Foundation Governance ParadoxAnalysisOpenAI Foundation Governance ParadoxThe OpenAI Foundation holds Class N shares giving it exclusive power to appoint/remove all OpenAI Group PBC board members. However, 7 of 8 Foundation board members also serve on the for-profit boar...Quality: 75/100US Government Authority Over Commercial AI InfrastructureAnalysisUS Government Authority Over Commercial AI InfrastructureSurveys US legal authority (DPA, IEEPA, CLOUD Act, FISA 702) over $700B+ in commercial AI infrastructure concentrated in 5-6 companies, concluding the government has extensive but not unlimited pow...Quality: 64/100UMA Optimistic OracleProjectUMA Optimistic OracleDispute resolution mechanism for prediction markets. Assertions assumed true unless challenged. Now using LLMs to propose and dispute data. >99% accuracy. Primary resolution layer for Polymarket.Democracy Levels FrameworkProjectDemocracy Levels FrameworkFramework by Aviv Ovadya and 13 co-authors for evaluating the degree to which decisions in a given domain are made democratically. Provides milestones toward meaningfully democratic AI. Published N...
Historical
International AI Safety Summit SeriesEventInternational AI Safety Summit SeriesThree international AI safety summits (2023-2025) achieved first formal recognition of catastrophic AI risks from 28+ countries, established 10+ AI Safety Institutes with $100-400M combined budgets...Quality: 63/100
Key Debates
Open vs Closed Source AICruxOpen vs Closed Source AIComprehensive analysis of open vs closed source AI debate, documenting that open model performance gap narrowed from 8% to 1.7% in 2024, with 1.2B+ Llama downloads by April 2025 and DeepSeek R1 dem...Quality: 60/100Government Regulation vs Industry Self-GovernanceCruxGovernment Regulation vs Industry Self-GovernanceComprehensive comparison of government regulation versus industry self-governance for AI, documenting that US federal AI regulations doubled to 59 in 2024 while industry lobbying surged 141% to 648...Quality: 54/100
Other
Archon FungPersonArchon FungProfessor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Expert on democracy, governance, and civic participation. Studies how institutional design affects public engagement and accountability.Yoshua BengioPersonYoshua BengioComprehensive biographical overview of Yoshua Bengio's transition from deep learning pioneer (Turing Award 2018) to AI safety advocate, documenting his 2020 pivot at Mila toward safety research, co...Quality: 39/100