Longterm Wiki
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Comprehensive overview of the optimistic AI alignment worldview, estimating under 5% existential risk by 2100 based on beliefs that alignment is tr...
Comprehensive analysis of coordination mechanisms for AI safety showing racing dynamics could compress safety timelines by 2-5 years, with $500M+ g...
Hybrid AI-human systems achieve 15-40% error reduction across domains through six design patterns, with evidence from Meta (23% false positive redu...
Documents AI-enabled scientific fraud with evidence that 2-20% of submissions are from paper mills (field-dependent), 300,000+ fake papers exist, a...
This page synthesizes post-FTX critiques of EA's epistemic and governance failures, identifying interlocking problems including donor hero-worship,...
Comprehensive analysis of deepfake detection showing best commercial detectors achieve 78-87% in-the-wild accuracy vs 96%+ in controlled settings, ...
Comprehensive overview of the long-timelines worldview (20-40+ years to AGI, 5-20% P(doom)), arguing for foundational research over rushed solution...
Organizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and e...
Philip Tetlock is a psychologist who revolutionized forecasting research by demonstrating that expert predictions often perform no better than chan...
Expertise atrophy—humans losing skills to AI dependence—poses medium-term risks across critical domains (aviation, medicine, programming), creating...
Structures 9 epistemic cruxes determining AI safety prioritization strategy, with probabilistic analysis showing detection-generation arms race cur...
Elicit is an AI research assistant with 5M+ researchers that searches 138M papers and automates literature reviews, founded by AI alignment researc...
This worldview argues governance/coordination is the bottleneck for AI safety (not just technical solutions), estimating 10-30% P(doom) by 2100. Ev...
Rethink Priorities is a research organization founded in 2018 that grew from 2 to ~130 people by 2022, conducting evidence-based analysis across an...
Comprehensive analysis of epistemic security finds human deepfake detection at near-chance levels (55.5%), AI detection dropping 45-50% on novel co...
Describes AI systems that shape human preferences rather than just beliefs, distinguishing it from misinformation. Presents a 5-stage manipulation ...
Projects when AI-generated content becomes undetectable across modalities: text detection already at ~50% (random chance), images declining 5-10% a...
Models institutional trust as a network contagion problem, finding cascades become irreversible below 30-40% trust thresholds and that AI multiplie...
Models adversarial dynamics between AI generation and detection of synthetic content, projecting detection accuracy will fall from 65% (2024) to ~5...
AI sycophancy—where models agree with users rather than provide accurate information—affects all five state-of-the-art models tested, with medical ...
Comprehensive analysis of epistemic infrastructure showing AI fact-checking achieves 85-87% accuracy at $0.10-$1.00 per claim versus $50-200 for hu...
AI Impacts is a research organization that conducts empirical analysis of AI timelines and risks through surveys and historical trend analysis, con...
Elite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influe...
This model quantifies how AI assistance degrades human expertise through cascading feedback loops across individual (1-5 years), institutional (5-1...
This framework maps beliefs about AI timelines (short/medium/long), alignment difficulty (hard/medium/tractable), and coordination feasibility (fea...
Analyzes how AI systems erode institutional trust through deepfakes, disinformation, and authentication collapse, finding trust erodes 3-10x faster...
System dynamics model analyzing feedback loops between media coverage, public concern, and AI policy using coupled differential equations. Finds 6-...
Epoch AI maintains comprehensive databases tracking 3,200+ ML models showing 4.4x annual compute growth and projects data exhaustion 2026-2032. The...
Comprehensive synthesis of AGI timeline forecasts showing dramatic acceleration: expert median dropped from 2061 (2018) to 2047 (2023), Metaculus f...
Models AI sycophancy as multi-level feedback loops where validation increases user dependency (modeled with differential equations showing equilibr...
Comprehensive synthesis showing human deepfake detection has fallen to 24.5% for video and 55% overall (barely above chance), with AI detectors dro...
Nuño Sempere is a Spanish superforecaster who co-founded the highly successful Samotsvety forecasting group and now runs Sentinel for global catast...
US government trust declined from 73% (1958) to 17% (2025), with AI deepfakes projected to reach 8M by 2025 accelerating erosion through the 'liar'...
Epistemic collapse describes the complete erosion of society's ability to establish factual consensus when AI-generated synthetic content overwhelm...
Five-phase model tracking progression from AI augmentation to irreversible skill loss, finding humans decline to 50-70% baseline capability in Phas...
Post-2024 analysis shows AI disinformation had limited immediate electoral impact (cheap fakes used 7x more than AI content), but creates concernin...
AI-augmented forecasting combines AI computational strengths with human judgment, achieving 5-15% Brier score improvements and 50-200x cost reducti...
A self-referential documentation page describing the Longterm Wiki platform itself—a strategic intelligence tool with ~550 pages, crux mapping of ~...
FutureSearch is an AI forecasting startup founded by former Metaculus leaders that combines LLM research agents with human judgment, demonstrating ...
Projects authentication crisis threshold when detection accuracy falls to 50-55% (chance levels): audio by 2026-2027, images 2025-2027, video 2026-...
A 2022 forecasting tournament with 169 participants found superforecasters severely underestimated AI progress (2.3% probability for IMO gold vs ac...
Analyzes how AI-driven information environments induce epistemic learned helplessness (surrendering truth-seeking), presenting survey evidence show...
Comprehensive analysis of AI-assisted deliberation platforms showing 15-35% opinion change rates, with Taiwan's vTaiwan achieving 80% policy implem...
Consensus manufacturing through AI-generated content is already occurring at massive scale (18M of 22M FCC comments were fake in 2017; 30-40% of on...
Wikipedia faces three-way AI pressure: being consumed as training data (47.9% of ChatGPT citations), infiltrated by AI content (~5% of new articles...
A well-structured retrospective on the FTX collapse identifying six major pre-collapse warning signs (FTT overreliance, fund commingling, governanc...
Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecaste...
The FTX collapse (November 2022) caused measurable but concentrated reputational damage to effective altruism, with ~30% of engaged community membe...
Analysis finds major AI incidents shift public opinion by 10-25 percentage points with 6-12 month half-life, but elite opinion has 3-5x stronger po...
Forethought Foundation's five proposed technologies for improving collective epistemics: community notes for everything, rhetoric highlighting, rel...
This article examines the dual impact of the FTX collapse on longtermism: severe reputational and funding damage (including 160M USD in lost Future...
Biographical profile of Eli Lifland, a top-ranked forecaster and AI safety researcher who co-authored the AI 2027 scenario forecast and co-founded ...
FRI's XPT tournament found superforecasters gave 9.7% average probability to AI progress outcomes that occurred vs 24.6% from domain experts, sugge...
Content authentication via C2PA and watermarking (10B+ images) offers superior robustness to failing detection methods (55% accuracy), with EU AI A...
Swift Centre is a UK forecasting organization that provides conditional forecasting services to various clients including some AI companies, but is...
FLF's inaugural 12-week fellowship (July-October 2025) combined research fellowship with startup incubator format. 30 fellows received $25-50K stip...
Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, ...
A proposed system for systematically assessing the track records of public actors by topic, scoring factual claims against sources, predictions aga...
Analysis of how declining institutional trust (media 31%, federal government 17% per 2024-2025 Gallup/Pew data) could create self-reinforcing colla...
Arb Research is a small AI safety consulting firm that produces methodologically rigorous research and evaluations, particularly known for their AI...