Longterm Wiki
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Philip Tetlock is a psychologist who revolutionized forecasting research by demonstrating that expert predictions often perform no better than chan...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Max Tegmark covering his transition from cosmology to AI safety advocacy, his role founding the Future of Lif...
Comprehensive tracking of Sam Altman's predictions shows he's directionally correct on AI trajectory and cost declines (10x/year validated) but con...
Nick Beckstead is a philosopher and EA/longtermism figure whose 2013 dissertation formalized longtermist ethics; this article covers his career arc...
Sam Bankman-Fried, convicted of fraud and sentenced to 25 years for misappropriating FTX customer funds, damaged both cryptocurrency markets and th...
Comprehensive documentation of Elon Musk's prediction track record showing systematic overoptimism on timelines (FSD predictions missed by 6+ years...
A comprehensive biographical profile of David Dalrymple covering his role directing ARIA's £59M Safeguarded AI programme, his technical approach to...
David Sacks, as White House AI and Crypto Czar, represents a significant policy force advocating for minimal AI regulation while dismissing AI safe...
Nuño Sempere is a Spanish superforecaster who co-founded the highly successful Samotsvety forecasting group and now runs Sentinel for global catast...
Ajeya Cotra is a member of technical staff at METR and former senior advisor at Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy), where she led tech...
Comprehensive biographical reference on Will MacAskill covering his founding of EA organizations, academic work on moral uncertainty and longtermis...
Vipul Naik is a mathematician and EA community member who has funded ~$255K in contract research (primarily to Sebastian Sanchez and Issa Rice) and...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Leopold Aschenbrenner, covering his trajectory from Columbia valedictorian to OpenAI researcher to $1.5B hedg...
Comprehensive tracking of Eliezer Yudkowsky's predictions shows clear early errors (Singularity by 2021, nanotech timelines), vindication on AI gen...
Comprehensive compilation of Yann LeCun's predictions showing he was correct on long-term architectural intuitions (neural networks, self-supervise...
Marc Andreessen is a highly influential venture capitalist managing $90B+ who strongly opposes AI safety measures and alignment research, arguing t...
Biographical profile of Eli Lifland, a top-ranked forecaster and AI safety researcher who co-authored the AI 2027 scenario forecast and co-founded ...
Comprehensive biography of Evan Hubinger documenting his influential theoretical work on mesa-optimization/deceptive alignment (2019, 205+ citation...
Profile of Jaan Tallinn documenting $150M+ lifetime AI safety giving (86% of $51M in 2024), primarily through SFF ($34.33M distributed in a 2025 gr...
Comprehensive biographical entry on Robin Hanson covering his contributions to prediction markets, futarchy governance, and skeptical AI safety pos...
Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna have given $4B+ since 2011, with ~$336M (12% of total) directed to AI safety through Coefficient Giving (formerly Op...
Comprehensive biographical profile of pseudonymous researcher Gwern Branwen, documenting his early advocacy of AI scaling laws (predicting AGI by 2...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Eliezer Yudkowsky covering his foundational contributions to AI safety (CEV, early problem formulation, agent...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Yann LeCun documenting his technical contributions (CNNs, JEPA), his ~0% AI extinction risk estimate, and his...
Issa Rice is an independent researcher who has created valuable knowledge infrastructure tools like Timelines Wiki and AI Watch for the EA and AI s...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Demis Hassabis documenting his evolution from chess prodigy to DeepMind CEO, with detailed timeline of techni...
Biography of Jan Leike covering his career from Australian National University through DeepMind, OpenAI's Superalignment team, to his current role ...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei documenting his competitive safety development philosophy, 10-25% catastrophic ris...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Neel Nanda covering his role as DeepMind's mechanistic interpretability team lead, key contributions (Transfo...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Sam Altman documenting his role as OpenAI CEO, timeline predictions (AGI within presidential term, superintel...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Helen Toner documenting her career from EA Melbourne founder to CSET Interim Executive Director, with detaile...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Chris Olah covering his unconventional career path, foundational contributions to mechanistic interpretabilit...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Geoffrey Hinton documenting his 2023 shift from AI pioneer to safety advocate, estimating 10-20% extinction r...
Comprehensive biographical reference page on Nick Bostrom covering his major contributions (orthogonality thesis, instrumental convergence, Superin...
Comprehensive biographical profile of Toby Ord documenting his 10% AI extinction estimate and role founding effective altruism, with detailed table...
Holden Karnofsky directed $300M+ in AI safety funding through Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy), growing the field from ~20 to 400+ F...
Comprehensive profile of Elon Musk's role in AI, documenting his early safety warnings (2014-2017), OpenAI founding and contentious departure, xAI ...
Comprehensive biographical overview of Yoshua Bengio's transition from deep learning pioneer (Turing Award 2018) to AI safety advocate, documenting...
Comprehensive biography of Paul Christiano documenting his technical contributions (IDA, debate, scalable oversight), risk assessment (~10-20% P(do...
Vidur Kapur is a superforecaster and AI policy researcher involved in multiple forecasting organizations and the Sentinel early warning system, con...
Comprehensive reference biography of Dan Hendrycks (CAIS director), covering his academic career (GELU, MMLU, OOD detection), CAIS founding and fun...
An index/overview page documenting the epistemic track records of four AI figures (LeCun, Altman, Yudkowsky, Musk) with brief characterizations of ...
Stuart Russell (born 1962) is a British computer scientist and UC Berkeley professor who co-authored the dominant AI textbook 'Artificial Intellige...
Profiles of influential researchers and leaders in AI safety
Biographical overview of Ilya Sutskever's career trajectory from deep learning researcher (AlexNet, seq2seq, dropout) to co-founding Safe Superinte...
Biography of Connor Leahy, CEO and co-founder of Conjecture, an AI safety company based in London. Previously co-founded EleutherAI in 2020, which ...
Biographical profile of Anthropic's President covering her education, early career, roles at Stripe and OpenAI, and her operational and commercial ...