Kalshi (Prediction Market)

Startup

Kalshi (Prediction Market)

This is a corporate profile of Kalshi, a US prediction market platform regulated by the CFTC. The page covers its founding history, fee structure, regulatory disputes, partnerships, and AI-related markets. Kalshi hosts a small number of markets directly relevant to AI safety topics including research pauses and AI legislation, in addition to its primary focus on sports, politics, and economics.

TypeStartup

Websitekalshi.com

3.5k words · 4 backlinks

Quick Assessment

Dimension	Assessment
Type	Regulated prediction market exchange
Founded	2018
Regulatory Status	First CFTC-licensed designated contract market (DCM) for event contracts (approved November 2020)
Trading Volume	$40–50 billion annualized (as of late 2025); $6.38 billion in December 2025 alone
Valuation	$11 billion (Series E, December 2025)
Key Markets	Politics, sports, economics, climate, finance, culture, technology
Revenue Model	Transaction fees on expected contract earnings (taker fee: 0.07%–7%; maker fee: 0.018%–1.75%)
Major Investors	Paradigm, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, CapitalG, Y Combinator

Key Links

Source	Link
Official Website	kalshi.com
Wikipedia	en.wikipedia.org
Wikidata	wikidata.org

Overview

Kalshi is the first federally regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, allowing users to trade binary yes/no contracts on real-world event outcomes.¹ Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates Tarek Mansour (CEO) and Luana Lopes Lara (COO), Kalshi operates as a peer-to-peer marketplace using a central limit order book (CLOB), in which users trade against each other rather than against the house.²

The platform's stated mission is to enable users to capitalize on their opinions, hedge personal risks, and trade on events across categories including inflation, Federal Reserve decisions, unemployment, elections, sports outcomes, climate events, and cultural trends.³ Kalshi positions itself as a neutral platform that generates predictive data without staking on outcomes.⁴

After obtaining CFTC approval in November 2020, Kalshi officially launched trading in July 2021.⁵ The platform expanded rapidly in 2024–2025, particularly after a federal court ruling in September 2024 backed Kalshi's position and political event contracts went live again, overcoming earlier CFTC objections.⁶ By late 2025, Kalshi had reached an $11 billion valuation following a $1 billion Series E funding round, with millions of users accessing the platform weekly.⁷

History and Development

Founding Story

Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara met as international undergraduate students at MIT, where they studied computer science, mathematics, and electrical engineering.⁸ Their shared interest in financial markets history led them to collaborate on classes, papers, and projects. Both shared internship experiences at several firms: Mansour held internships at Goldman Sachs, Palantir, Five Rings Capital, and Citadel while at MIT, and Lopes Lara interned at Bridgewater Associates, Citadel Securities, and Five Rings Capital.⁹ A shared summer 2018 internship at Five Rings Capital in New York City is cited as the key period that cemented the partnership and the genesis of the Kalshi concept.¹⁰

Lopes Lara earned a Bachelor's degree in Computer Science and Mathematics from MIT in 2018, followed by a Master of Engineering (MEng) in Computer Science from MIT in 2019.¹¹ She conducted research at the MIT Computational Cognitive Science Laboratory under Dr. Max Kleiman-Weiner and Prof. Josh Tenenbaum, and at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL).¹² Mansour completed a BSc in Electrical Engineering, Computer Science, and Mathematics in 2018, after which he worked full-time as a quantitative trader at Citadel's global macro desk.¹³ He left after approximately five months to co-found Kalshi.¹⁴

The founders were motivated by gaps they identified in financial markets for hedging event outcomes such as elections or policy decisions, particularly after observing market shocks following events like Brexit.¹⁵ Kalshi's early years were largely devoted to regulatory compliance, requiring the team to build exchange, broker, and surveillance systems before acquiring any users.¹⁶

Key Milestones

2018: Company founded (initially under the name "Kownig"); Mansour leaves Citadel after approximately five months to co-found¹⁷
2019: Joined Y Combinator Winter batch; began multi-year regulatory engagement with CFTC¹⁸
November 2020: CFTC approves Kalshi as first designated contract market (DCM) for event contracts¹⁹
July 2021: Official platform launch enabling trades on economic events²⁰
August 2022: CFTC begins examining political event contracts proposal²¹
September 2023: CFTC rejects political contracts, citing gambling risks²²
November 2023: Kalshi sues CFTC for regulatory overreach²³
September 2024: Federal court rules in Kalshi's favor, allowing election contracts to resume²⁴
November 2024: Robinhood launches prediction hub on Kalshi infrastructure²⁵
October 22, 2025: NHL announces multiyear official prediction market partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket — the first such partnership between a major U.S. professional sports league and prediction market companies²⁶
2025: Sports betting launch generates over $1 billion traded in first five months²⁷
December 23, 2025: Chicago Blackhawks partnership announced, marking the first brand partnership between a North American sports team and a prediction market platform²⁸

Funding and Growth

Kalshi has raised over $1.5 billion across multiple funding rounds:²⁹

March 2020: $6.1 million seed round³⁰
February 2021: $30 million Series A at approximately $120 million valuation, led by Sequoia Capital, with participation from Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis, and SV Angel³¹
June 2025: $185 million Series C at $2 billion valuation, led by Paradigm, with participation from Sequoia, Multicoin, Neo, BOND Capital, and others³²
October 2025: $300 million Series D at $5 billion valuation, led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz³³
December 2025: $1 billion Series E at $11 billion valuation, led by Paradigm with participation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG, and Y Combinator³⁴

Note: Earlier wiki sources referenced a "Series B" in 2022 and a separate smaller round in June 2025, but available funding databases and press releases do not confirm a publicly announced Series B round. The $30 million figure associated with some Series B references appears to correspond to the February 2021 Series A.³⁵

Platform Operations

How Event Contracts Work

Kalshi offers binary yes/no contracts on verifiable real-world events.³⁶ Contract prices reflect market-determined probabilities: a "Yes" contract trading at $0.30 represents a 30% implied probability, and pays out $1 if the event occurs.³⁷ Users can take either side of any contract, enabling both speculation on beliefs and hedging against risks.

The platform operates using a central limit order book (CLOB) where users place limit and market orders. Unlike traditional prediction markets or sportsbooks, Kalshi does not take positions against users but facilitates peer-to-peer trading.³⁸

Market Makers and Liquidity Provision

A distinct class of participants — market makers — plays a central role in maintaining liquidity on Kalshi's order book. Market makers continuously post resting buy and sell orders across contracts, narrowing bid-ask spreads and enabling other traders to execute immediately at fair prices. Without market maker participation, the CLOB model would produce wide spreads and low fill rates, particularly in less actively traded markets.

Kalshi's member agreement formalizes market maker relationships through separate agreements that provide financial compensation, which can include fee discounts, fee rebates, and revenue share from fees. Market makers may also receive access to specialized risk management tools, such as order protections that automatically cancel orders if certain conditions are triggered — tools not available to regular members.³⁹ Because of these financial incentives, market makers may price their quotes in ways that differ materially from other members who are not eligible for such benefits, and this differential is disclosed in Kalshi's member agreement.⁴⁰

Kalshi separately runs a Liquidity Incentive Program open to most regular U.S. members, which rewards participants for placing resting orders that improve market liquidity. This program explicitly excludes market makers with existing formal agreements, Kalshi employees, and Introducing Brokers or FCMs — confirming that formal market maker arrangements and the retail incentive program operate as distinct tracks.⁴¹ A Volume Incentive Program provides cashback rewards based on trading activity and similarly excludes formal market makers.⁴²

Fee Structure and Revenue Model

Kalshi generates revenue through transaction fees charged on the expected earnings of contracts.⁴³ The platform uses a maker-taker fee structure. Contrary to some descriptions, both makers and takers pay fees, but at different rates: taker fees are four times higher than maker fees, creating a strong incentive to post resting orders rather than accept existing ones.⁴⁴

The fee formula is based on contract probability rather than discrete tiers. For taker orders, the fee is calculated as: fee = round_up(0.07 × C × P × (1−P)), where C is the number of contracts and P is the price in dollars.⁴⁵ This produces a parabolic fee curve:

The fee peaks at contracts priced near $0.50 (50% probability), where the maximum taker fee is approximately 1.75 cents per contract
The fee approaches zero as contract prices approach $0.01 or $0.99, preventing prohibitively expensive trading at extremes
The effective fee rate ranges from approximately 0.07% to 7% depending on contract probability

Maker orders follow the same formula but with a multiplier of 0.0175 instead of 0.07, producing fees approximately one-quarter the rate of taker fees.⁴⁶

For certain financial index markets, including S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 contracts, Kalshi applies a halved taker fee multiplier of 0.035 rather than the standard 0.07, reducing trading costs by approximately 50% compared to standard contracts.⁴⁷

Traditional sportsbooks typically embed a "vigorish" or "juice" into offered odds, charging an implicit fee on both sides of a market. Kalshi's explicit maker-taker structure differs in that it creates asymmetric incentives by design, and its fee level at near-50% odds is broadly comparable to or lower than standard sportsbook juice, though the comparison is not direct because of structural differences between the platforms.⁴⁸

The company also has potential for data monetization, with real-time prediction market data valued by some institutional clients for forecasting applications.⁴⁹

Market Categories and Scale

As of late 2025, Kalshi offers contracts across multiple categories:⁵⁰

Politics: Election outcomes, legislative actions, policy decisions
Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college sports, including prop bets and parlays ("combos")
Economics: Inflation rates, Federal Reserve decisions, unemployment figures, GDP growth
Climate: Temperature records, extreme weather events, climate policy
Finance & Crypto: Market indices, cryptocurrency prices, financial regulations
Culture: Entertainment awards, pop culture events, Time Person of the Year
Technology & Science: Research breakthroughs, product launches, AI developments

Sports betting emerged as the dominant category in 2024–2025, accounting for approximately 90% of trading volume by December 2025.⁵¹

Strategic Partnerships

Kalshi has developed partnerships across sports, data, finance, and media sectors:

Sports Partnerships

NHL Agreement: On October 22, 2025, the NHL announced multiyear official prediction market partnerships with both Kalshi and Polymarket, making it the first major U.S. professional sports league to partner with prediction market companies.⁵² The agreement provides Kalshi and Polymarket access to official NHL proprietary data and rights to use NHL marks, logos, and official designations on their platforms.⁵³ Brand exposure includes Digitally Enhanced Dasherboards and virtual signage during national broadcasts, covering regular season games, the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the NHL Winter Classic, and the NHL Stadium Series.⁵⁴ The NBA, MLB, and NFL had not announced comparable partnerships at the time of the NHL announcement.⁵⁵

Chicago Blackhawks: On December 23, 2025, Kalshi announced a partnership with the Chicago Blackhawks, described as the first brand partnership between a North American sports team and a prediction market platform.⁵⁶ The agreement, beginning during the Blackhawks' Centennial season, includes IP and marks sharing for co-marketing, social media engagement, Kalshi signage at United Center, and integration into Blackhawks broadcasts in the Chicago market.

Data and Technology Partnerships

STATSCORE: A three-year strategic partnership provides Kalshi with premium sports data integration, enhancing sports contracts with live data and analytics for football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey, baseball, Formula 1, and American football.⁵⁷

StockX: Kalshi and StockX reportedly announced a partnership in November 2025 for Kalshi to power event contracts using aggregated StockX market data; details and the authoritative announcement source are pending re-verification after an earlier citation was flagged as contradicted.

Barchart: Formally announced in November 2025, this partnership integrates Kalshi prediction market data feeds into Barchart's platform, providing access to electoral outcomes and economic indicator forecasts for Barchart's institutional and retail user base.⁵⁸

Coinbase Custody: Partnership for USDC-powered event trading, providing custody services for platform assets.⁵⁹

Financial Platform Integrations

Robinhood Integration: Launched in November 2024, the Robinhood prediction hub built on Kalshi infrastructure reportedly accounted for over half of Kalshi's betting volume and extended access to Robinhood's retail trader base.⁶⁰

Additional Integrations: In late 2025, Kalshi announced integration with the TRON network, the Phantom crypto wallet, and a role as in-house prediction market for Coinbase.⁶¹

Media Partnerships

CNN: Launched integration of Kalshi data across programming with a real-time news ticker in late 2025.⁶²

CNBC: Announced a 2026 partnership to incorporate real-time prediction data into editorial coverage across TV, digital, and subscription channels.⁶³

AI Safety Markets

Kalshi hosts a small number of markets directly related to AI safety, alignment, and existential risk. These markets allow traders to express views on AI research pauses and regulation:⁶⁴

AI Research Pause Market (KXAI PAUSE-27): Resolves YES if xAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, or OpenAI pauses AI research training/development for safety reasons before January 1, 2027. As of available data, the market assigns a 12% probability to this outcome.⁶⁵
AI Regulation Markets: Kalshi offers contracts on whether AI regulation will become federal law, including KXAI LEGISLATION-27, which resolves YES if a bill regulating AI becomes law by January 1, 2027, verified via the Library of Congress, imposing restrictions such as compute limits, transparency requirements, or mandatory safety testing.⁶⁶

The 12% probability on the research pause market reflects aggregate trader positioning at a given point in time; market probabilities incorporate a range of factors beyond participant views on AI safety, including event base rates and trader composition.⁶⁷

Market Competition

Kalshi and Polymarket have been described by analysts as a duopoly in the prediction market space, collectively generating over $44 billion in trading volume during 2025.⁶⁸ Polymarket operates primarily using cryptocurrency and has faced restrictions on U.S. users; Kalshi operates with direct USD trading under federal regulatory approval.⁶⁹

By mid-January 2026, combined volumes for both platforms totaled nearly $4 billion, with January 17, 2026 marking a daily record of $799 million across both platforms.⁷⁰ Kalshi's regulatory status enables features including segregated customer funds, deposit insurance eligibility, and institutional partnerships that are not available to platforms operating outside U.S. regulatory frameworks. Users who prefer cryptocurrency-native platforms or are outside the U.S. may favor Polymarket's structure.⁷¹

Regulatory Challenges and Legal Disputes

Despite achieving CFTC approval, Kalshi faces regulatory challenges from state gaming authorities and tribal gaming commissions who argue that event contracts — particularly sports betting markets — fall under state gambling jurisdiction rather than federal commodity futures regulation.

State Gaming Authority Challenges

The New York State Gaming Commission issued Kalshi a cease and desist letter, claiming the company offers sports betting without a state license.⁷² In November 2025, U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved a preliminary injunction that had allowed Kalshi to continue operating in Nevada, ruling that event contracts based on sporting outcomes "do not fall within the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction" and writing that "everyone including Kalshi could see that their sports event contracts are clearly sports betting."⁷³ The preliminary injunction had been in place for approximately seven months prior to dissolution.⁷⁴

Following the November 2025 ruling, Kalshi stated it was "evaluating the decision and anticipate[d] making an appeal to the Ninth Circuit."⁷⁵ On January 14, 2026, a federal judge partially stayed the Nevada case to allow the Ninth Circuit to consider Kalshi's appeal while refusing to pause discovery.⁷⁶ The Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi's emergency motion for an administrative stay on February 17, 2026, after which the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil enforcement action in Carson City District Court seeking an injunction to stop Kalshi from offering unlicensed sports betting in the state.⁷⁷ Kalshi's main appeal (Case No. 25-7516) remains pending at the Ninth Circuit as of early 2026, and analysts have noted the U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately need to settle tensions between federal commodities law and state gambling regulation.⁷⁸

As of early 2026, approximately 20 states that offer gambling have taken legal action against Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. The CFTC filed an amicus brief in support of Kalshi with the Ninth Circuit, though it was filed after the deadline for the stay ruling.⁷⁹

Tribal Gaming Opposition

Native American gaming tribes have filed legal briefs opposing Kalshi, characterizing its activities as "brazenly illegal."⁸⁰ Tribes argue that gaming "is not merely a 'commercial' endeavor, but an existential one," with gaming revenue central to tribal economic sustainability.⁸¹

Class Action Litigation

In 2025, Kalshi faced a class action lawsuit claiming that the platform's market maker arrangements place other customers at a disadvantage, a characterization Kalshi disputes.⁸² A separate New York class action lawsuit alleges illegal sports betting and deceptive practices, which Kalshi's COO Luana Lopes Lara described as "baseless."⁸³

Operational and Safety Concerns

Market Grading Errors

Kalshi has faced criticism for operational failures in market resolution. The platform incorrectly graded multiple NFL win totals markets, affecting numerous traders.⁸⁴ The company's response — refunding original trade amounts without paying out winnings to winning traders — drew criticism both as an operational error and as a communications failure.⁸⁵

Consumer Protection Issues

Consumer advocates and harm-reduction researchers have raised several concerns about Kalshi's platform design and practices.⁸⁶ These concerns come primarily from gambling harm advocacy perspectives and are disputed by Kalshi:

Inadequate Age Verification: Consumer reports indicate the platform has limited age verification mechanisms, which some critics argue could allow underage users to access the platform.⁸⁷

Responsible Gambling Measures: Critics have characterized the platform as showing "disregard for responsible gambling," with safety resources described as difficult to find.⁸⁸ The peer-to-peer trading format and derivatives-style contract rules may create informational asymmetries that disadvantage users unfamiliar with this type of trading.⁸⁹

Habit-Forming Design: Some researchers argue the platform's design may produce habit-forming patterns similar to traditional gambling applications, citing intermittent reinforcement mechanics.⁹⁰

Marketing Representations: Some consumer advocates argue that Kalshi's marketing slogans overstate the likelihood of long-term user profitability.⁹¹

Insider Trading Concerns

Prediction markets generally have faced scrutiny following instances where traders profited significantly using confidential information.⁹² A notable example involved a $30,000 bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's capture on Polymarket — a different platform from Kalshi — that yielded $436,760 in profits, with the account holders remaining unidentified.⁹³ Kalshi's CEO has stated the company prohibits insider trading; however, such violations do not currently carry criminal penalties on regulated event contract platforms, raising questions about enforcement.⁹⁴

Reception in EA and Forecasting Communities

Kalshi receives generally positive but cautious discussion in Effective Altruism (EA) Forum communities, with recognition of its legal milestones and forecasting potential, though concerns exist about attention costs, platform maturity, and limited coverage of social impact questions.⁹⁵

Positive Reception

EA Forum participants have noted that prediction markets such as Kalshi can provide forecasting accuracy advantages over traditional polling, citing examples such as CPI futures markets.⁹⁶ The platform's legal status following its October 2024 court victory against the CFTC is viewed by some as opening new possibilities for real-money forecasting on important questions.⁹⁷

EA Forum members have discussed Kalshi's founding and considered launching similar platforms for impactful forecasting, though such efforts were paused after Kalshi secured CFTC approval.⁹⁸

Concerns and Limitations

Attention Externalities: EA Forum discussions note that active trading on prediction markets demands constant vigilance, which may represent a significant attention cost for participants focused on high-impact work.⁹⁹

Platform Maturity: Users have noted interface limitations and adoption challenges, with the platform not yet streamlined for organizational or corporate workflows.¹⁰⁰

Limited Scope for EA Priorities: Kalshi may not offer markets on many social impact questions relevant to EA priorities, limiting its utility for certain forecasting applications despite its legal real-money status.¹⁰¹

Black Swan Events: Drawing on work by Nassim Taleb and Philip Tetlock, EA Forum discussions note that prediction markets can underperform on fat-tailed, low-probability events such as political discontinuities or structural changes.¹⁰²

Key Uncertainties

Several major uncertainties surround Kalshi's future trajectory:

Regulatory Resolution: Will courts ultimately side with Kalshi's position that it operates under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, or will states successfully assert gambling law authority over event contracts? The outcome will determine which markets Kalshi can offer and in which jurisdictions.
Sports Market Sustainability: With sports betting accounting for approximately 90% of volume by late 2025, can Kalshi maintain growth if state lawsuits successfully restrict sports contracts? What alternative high-volume markets could fill this gap?
Market Manipulation and Integrity: As volumes grow, can Kalshi effectively prevent insider trading and market manipulation without criminal penalties for violators? Will new legislation or regulation address these concerns?
Institutional Adoption: Can Kalshi successfully expand from retail-dominated use to significant institutional usage for data and hedging, creating sustainable revenue beyond transaction fees?
International Expansion: With users in 140+ countries but U.S. legal challenges ongoing, should Kalshi prioritize international growth over resolving domestic regulatory issues?
Competition from Traditional Finance: Will established exchanges or financial institutions launch competing CFTC-regulated event contract platforms, affecting Kalshi's first-mover position?
Public Perception: As prediction markets become more mainstream, will they be broadly accepted as legitimate forecasting tools, or will gambling associations limit adoption and invite stricter regulation?

References

1What is Kalshi? - Kalshi 101help.kalshi.com▸

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market exchange in the US where users can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. It operates as a federally regulated exchange under the CFTC, allowing participants to buy and sell contracts based on yes/no questions about future events. The platform represents a mainstream, legally compliant implementation of prediction market infrastructure.

help.kalshi.com

Claims (1)

The platform's mission is to democratize finance by enabling everyday users to capitalize on their opinions, hedge personal risks, and trade on events that matter to them. Kalshi positions itself as a neutral platform generating predictive data without staking on outcomes, aiming to create accurate, efficient markets for a wide range of event categories including inflation, Federal Reserve decisions, unemployment, elections, sports outcomes, climate events, and cultural trends.

Minor issues85%Apr 18, 2026

“At Kalshi, we're not just creating a platform; we're revolutionizing the way people interact with the financial world. Our mission transcends the conventional - it's about empowering you, the everyday individual, with the tools to not only voice your opinions but to capitalize on them.”

The source does not mention all the event categories listed in the claim, such as sports outcomes, climate events, and cultural trends. The source does not explicitly state that Kalshi positions itself as a neutral platform generating predictive data without staking on outcomes.

2Prediction Markets in The Corporate SettingEA Forum·NunoSempere, Misha_Yagudin & elifland·2021▸

A commissioned report reviewing the academic consensus and corporate track record of internal prediction markets, concluding they have largely failed to gain adoption due to high costs, difficulty formulating valuable questions, and social disruption. The authors recommend against widespread corporate adoption while identifying limited use cases and surveying alternative forecasting mechanisms.

★★★☆☆

forum.effectivealtruism.org

Claims (4)

Kalshi receives generally positive but cautious discussion in Effective Altruism (EA) Forum communities, with recognition of its legal milestones and forecasting potential, though concerns exist about attention costs, market maturity, and limited coverage of social impact questions.

Unsupported0%Apr 18, 2026

“Hypermind is a French forecasting platform/prediction market whose chief advantage is that its legal status is clear. Kalshi is based in the US, and its legal status is also clear, but is newer and thus might see lower volume.”

The source only mentions Kalshi's legal status and volume, but does not discuss Effective Altruism (EA) Forum communities, forecasting potential, attention costs, market maturity, or limited coverage of social impact questions.

EA Forum members have chatted with Kalshi founders and considered launching similar platforms for impactful forecasting, though they paused these efforts after Kalshi secured CFTC approval.

Unsupported0%Apr 18, 2026

“Hypermind is a French forecasting platform/prediction market whose chief advantage is that its legal status is clear. Kalshi is based in the US, and its legal status is also clear, but is newer and thus might see lower volume.”

The source does not mention EA Forum members chatting with Kalshi founders or considering launching similar platforms.

Immature Technology: Users note clunky UX and chicken-and-egg adoption issues, with the platform not yet streamlined for corporate or organizational workflows.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“On the engineering side: Prediction markets and forecasting platforms are not mature as a technology. They are not streamlined, they are clunky[^clunky-ux] to use, and there are not many people familiar with the practice.”

+1 more claims

3Prediction Markets Kalshi and Polymarket Face Regulationcbsnews.com·Blog post▸

CBS News reports on growing regulatory pressure on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, focusing on insider trading concerns after a trader profited $400,000 on a geopolitical event hours before a presidential announcement. New York State's Gaming Commission and legislators are pushing back against these platforms, which argue they are financial trading venues under federal commodity regulation rather than gambling sites.

cbsnews.com

Claims (2)

The New York State Gaming Commission issued Kalshi a cease and desist letter, claiming the company offers sports betting without a state license. Similarly, a federal judge ruled that Kalshi must stop offering prediction contracts in Nevada, with the Nevada Gaming Control Board stating the company was operating "unlawfully." Nearly two dozen states and tribal gaming authorities have filed federal lawsuits seeking to block Kalshi from offering sports wagering contracts in their jurisdictions.

Inaccurate75%Apr 18, 2026

“The New York State Gaming Commission , which regulates gambling, sent Kalshi a cease and desist letter saying the company offers sports betting without a state license.”

unsupported unsupported

Kalshi maintains it is a federally regulated trading platform under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, not a gambling operation subject to state regulation. However, US District Judge Andrew Gordon ruled that event contracts based on sporting outcomes "do not fall within the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction." This creates ongoing legal uncertainty about which events Kalshi can offer contracts on and in which jurisdictions.

Inaccurate50%Apr 18, 2026

“The New York State Gaming Commission , which regulates gambling, sent Kalshi a cease and desist letter saying the company offers sports betting without a state license. Kalshi responded with an ongoing lawsuit against the state, arguing it's a trading platform so only the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has regulatory authority.”

unsupported unsupported unsupported

4Why Wasn't Kalshi Paying Traders That Won NFL FuturesSubstack·Blog post▸

A journalist exposed how prediction market platform Kalshi incorrectly graded multiple NFL futures markets and initially refused to pay winning traders their full winnings, only reversing course after the story went viral with over a million views. The incident illustrates operational failures in market grading and serious communications failures in how Kalshi handled the mistake.

★★☆☆☆

nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Claims (2)

Native American gaming tribes have filed legal briefs opposing Kalshi, characterizing its activities as "brazenly illegal" and arguing that gaming is "not merely a 'commercial' endeavor, but an existential one" for tribes who rely on gaming revenue for economic survival.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

““For tribes, gaming is not merely a ‘commercial’ endeavor, but an existential one,” they wrote in the Tuesday brief, calling the activities offered by Kalshi and Robinhood ‘brazenly illegal.’””

The platform incorrectly graded multiple NFL win totals markets, affecting numerous traders. The company's response—refunding original trade amounts without paying out winnings to winners—drew criticism as both an operational failure and a public relations misstep.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“This time, it was a PR debacle around Kalshi grading some NFL futures bets incorrectly and not paying the rightful winners… at least not until I made the issue public on social media. Kalshi’s solution to this, per messages posted on Discord, was to refund the original trade amount but not pay out any winnings.”

5Kalshi and StockX Partnershipnews.kalshi.com·Blog post▸

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, has partnered with StockX to launch event contracts based on resale price outcomes for sneakers, apparel, and collectibles. The partnership uses aggregated StockX market data to power three contract categories: top-traded brands during major events, average sales prices for upcoming releases, and monthly average resale prices for popular items. This represents an expansion of regulated prediction markets into consumer culture and collectibles markets.

news.kalshi.com

Claims (1)

StockX: Announced in November 2025, this partnership enables Kalshi to power event contracts using aggregated, anonymized StockX market data for high-demand sneakers, apparel, accessories, and collectibles from brands like Jordan, Nike, Supreme, and LEGO.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Through this collaboration, Kalshi will now use aggregated, anonymized StockX market data to inform the creation of event contracts tied to high-profile sneakers and other current culture products, such as Labubu collectibles and Pokémon trading cards.”

The announcement date is not mentioned in the source. The brands mentioned in the claim are not mentioned in the source.

6CB Insights: Kalshi Financialscbinsights.com▸

CB Insights financial profile for Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Shows Kalshi raised $1.536B across 11 rounds with a $11B valuation as of November 2025, with investors including Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, CapitalG, and Paradigm, and 2024 revenue of $24M.

cbinsights.com

Claims (2)

Kalshi has raised over \$1.5 billion across nine funding rounds, achieving remarkable valuation growth in a short period:

Minor issues90%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi has raised $1.536B over 11 rounds .”

The claim states that Kalshi has raised money across nine funding rounds, but the source says eleven rounds.

- December 2020: \$30 million Series A at \$120 million valuation

7Class Action Suit Against Kalshi Market Makersigamingbusiness.com·Blog post▸

A federal class action lawsuit filed against prediction market platform Kalshi alleges that institutional market makers like Susquehanna International Group receive unfair advantages over retail users, including reduced fees and enhanced market access. Kalshi disputes the claims as meritless, arguing it operates as a federally regulated designated contract market with transparent practices. The case marks the first class action against a prediction market platform and raises broader questions about fairness and regulation in the rapidly growing prediction market space.

igamingbusiness.com

Claims (1)

In 2025, Kalshi faced a class action lawsuit claiming that the platform's market makers place customers at a disadvantage, though Kalshi contends these charges are meritless. A separate New York class action lawsuit alleges illegal sports betting and deceptive practices, which Kalshi's COO Luana Lopes Lara called "baseless."

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Class action suit vs. Kalshi lifts temperature in heated legal battle Plaintiffs claim market makers place customers at a disadvantage, charges that Kalshi contend are meritless. In a period rife with litigation involving prediction markets, a group of plaintiffs filed a federal lawsuit against Kalshi last week alleging that the company misled customers on its market-making practices. On the eve of Thanksgiving, plaintiffs from six states filed the civil lawsuit against Kalshi in New York claiming that the prediction market platform violated state gambling laws, engaged in illegal deceptive activity and unjustly enriched itself at the expense of its customers.”

The source does not specify the year the lawsuit was filed, only that it was filed 'last week' and 'on the eve of Thanksgiving'. The source does not name Luana Lopes Lara as the COO of Kalshi.

8Kalshi Starts 2026 Hot After Record 2025cryptopolitan.com·Blog post▸

Kalshi prediction market platform recorded explosive 1,100%+ year-over-year growth in 2025, processing $23.8 billion in total volume, driven largely by sports betting markets. The platform faces regulatory challenges from U.S. states alleging illegal sports betting operations while operating under CFTC oversight, and has secured $1 billion in Series E funding at an $11 billion valuation.

cryptopolitan.com

Claims (2)

Robinhood Integration: Launched in November 2024, the Robinhood prediction hub built on Kalshi infrastructure proved highly advantageous, reportedly accounting for over half of Kalshi's betting volume and granting access to millions of retail traders.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood has proven to be a successful move, as it is reportedly now accounting for more than half of Kalshi’s betting volume, providing access to millions of retail traders already familiar with event-driven speculation.”

WRONG DATE: The claim states the launch was in November 2024, but the source does not provide a launch date. OVERCLAIMS: The claim states that the Robinhood prediction hub was built on Kalshi infrastructure, but the source only mentions a partnership.

Kalshi and Polymarket have created what analysts describe as a duopoly in the prediction market space, collectively amassing over \$44 billion in trading volume during 2025. While Polymarket operates using cryptocurrency and has faced restrictions on US users, Kalshi distinguishes itself through federal regulatory approval and direct USD trading.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Together with rival Polymarket, the two platforms formed what analysts describe as a duopoly, generating more than $44 billion in combined trading volume throughout 2025.”

The article was published in 2026 and refers to 2025 as a past event, not a future one as the wiki claim suggests. The source does not mention Polymarket's use of cryptocurrency, restrictions on US users, or Kalshi's federal regulatory approval and direct USD trading.

9Kalshi and Inside TradingAxios·Blog post▸

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour publicly endorsed proposed U.S. legislation that would ban government officials from trading on inside information in prediction markets, noting Kalshi already implements such a ban. This comes in response to high-profile incidents where traders apparently profited using non-public information, including bets preceding a U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

★★★☆☆

axios.com

Claims (1)

Prediction markets generally have faced scrutiny following instances where traders profited significantly using confidential information. A notable example involved a \$30,000 bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's capture on Polymarket that yielded \$436,760 in profits, with the account holders remaining unidentified. While Kalshi's CEO claims the company bans insider trading, such violations do not currently carry criminal penalties on regulated platforms, raising questions about enforcement effectiveness.

Accurate95%Apr 18, 2026

“A major bet on Nicolás Maduro's capture before the Venezuelan president was seized in an American military raid showed how prediction markets pose a controversial new opportunity for insiders to profit on secret information. The newly created account on Kalshi rival Polymarket invested $30,000 Friday on Maduro's exit, pocketing $436,760 after he was captured. Nobody connected to the account has been identified.”

10Federal Judge Rules Kalshi Must Stop in Nevadathenevadaindependent.com·Blog post▸

A federal judge dissolved a preliminary injunction allowing Kalshi to operate in Nevada, ruling that the prediction market platform must stop offering sports-related contracts. The judge sided with Nevada gaming regulators, finding that Kalshi's claim of CFTC federal jurisdiction would improperly override decades of state and tribal gaming regulation. The case highlights a broader jurisdictional dispute over whether prediction markets constitute commodity trading or sports betting.

thenevadaindependent.com

Claims (2)

Inaccurate70%Apr 18, 2026

“Nevada is one of nearly two dozen states and tribal gaming authorities that have filed federal lawsuits seeking to block Kalshi and other prediction markets from offering sports wagering contracts (the term companies use to describe the business) in their jurisdictions.”

unsupported unsupported minor_issues

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

““In Crypto, I ruled that event contracts that turn on the outcomes of sporting events are not swaps and thus do not fall within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction,” the judge wrote.”

11Kalshi AI Research Pause Marketkalshi.com▸

A Kalshi prediction market tracking the probability that xAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or OpenAI will pause AI research or development for safety reasons before January 1, 2027. The market resolves Yes if any such pause is verified by The New York Times. As of early 2025, the market shows low probability, with traders noting the question's subjectivity and dependence on media coverage.

kalshi.com

Claims (1)

These markets allow traders to express views on AI research pauses and regulation:

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons 2026? Odds & Predictions”

12Kalshi Science Categorykalshi.com▸

Kalshi's Tech & Science prediction market category aggregates real-money crowd forecasts on AI capabilities, space exploration, nuclear energy, and emerging technologies. Markets include questions on AGI timelines, AI model rankings, SpaceX launches, nuclear reactor licensing, and psychedelic FDA approvals, with millions of dollars in trading volume reflecting collective probabilistic assessments.

kalshi.com

Claims (2)

- AI Research Pause Market (KXAI PAUSE-27): Resolves YES if xAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or OpenAI pauses AI research training/development for safety reasons before January 1, 2027. As of the latest data, the market assigns a 12% probability to any major AI company pausing research for safety before 2027.

Unsupported0%Apr 18, 2026

“Science Prediction Markets & Research Odds | Kalshi”

The relatively low probability (12%) assigned to AI safety pauses suggests trader skepticism about imminent research halts by major AI labs.

Unsupported0%Apr 18, 2026

“Science Prediction Markets & Research Odds | Kalshi”

13Harnessing the Power of Prediction Marketsnews.kalshi.com·Blog post▸

A Kalshi blog post explaining how prediction markets aggregate collective intelligence to generate probabilistic forecasts, outperforming individual predictions through the wisdom of crowds. It also honestly addresses key limitations including poor performance on black swan events and long-horizon forecasts, while noting that price histories help combat hindsight bias.

news.kalshi.com

Claims (2)

EA Forum users acknowledge Kalshi's superior forecasting accuracy compared to traditional polling, noting that markets like CPI futures outperform other forecasting methods. The platform's legal status following its October 2024 victory against CFTC regulators is seen as opening new possibilities for real-money forecasting on important questions.

Inaccurate50%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi CPI markets beating other sources by far”

unsupported unsupported unsupported

Black Swan Events: Referencing work by Nassim Taleb and Philip Tetlock, EA Forum discussions note that prediction markets systematically fail on fat-tailed, improbable events like revolutions or other discontinuous changes.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Black Swans are Black Swans because they are nearly impossible to predict. The fat-tailed nature of the many improbable but impactful events that can happen does not fit well in the model of markets. Taleb and Tetlock discuss this in their joint paper and cite revolutions as an example event where prediction markets can be erroneous.”

14The Casino-fication of Newspopular.info·Blog post▸

CNN and CNBC have partnered with prediction market platform Kalshi to integrate betting odds into news coverage, treating market movements as journalistic truth. The article argues this model is deeply flawed because Kalshi's small trading volumes make it vulnerable to manipulation by wealthy actors who can artificially shift odds to influence both market perception and news narratives. This gamification of journalism creates perverse incentives where market manipulation can masquerade as newsworthy information.

popular.info

Claims (2)

CNN: Launched integration of Kalshi data across programming with a real-time news ticker in late 2025.

Inaccurate75%Apr 18, 2026

“The CNN deal, which starts immediately, involves the “ integration of Kalshi data across CNN programming “ and “a new Kalshi-powered real-time news ticker that will run during segments that feature Kalshi data.””

WRONG DATE: The article states the deal starts immediately, not in late 2025.

CNBC: Announced a 2026 partnership to incorporate real-time prediction data into editorial coverage across TV, digital, and subscription channels.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“The CNBC deal, which begins in 2026 , will “incorporate real-time prediction data into CNBC’s editorial coverage across its TV, digital, and subscription channels.””

15Kalshi AI Regulation Market 2027kalshi.com▸

A Kalshi prediction market contract tracking the probability that the United States will pass significant federal AI regulation legislation by 2027. Prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom and financial incentives to produce probabilistic forecasts on policy outcomes.

kalshi.com

Claims (1)

- AI Regulation Markets: Kalshi offers contracts on whether AI regulation will become federal law, including KXAI LEGISLATION-27, which resolves YES if a bill regulating AI becomes law by January 1, 2027, verified via the Library of Congress, imposing restrictions like compute limits, transparency requirements, or mandatory safety testing.

16Kalshi Posts Record Volumes as Online Sports Betting Surgesnatlawreview.com·Blog post▸

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction marketplace, has grown its annualized trading volume from $300 million to $40-50 billion since August 2025, largely driven by sports betting contracts. The platform is forming partnerships with major sports leagues and crypto platforms, positioning prediction markets as a disruptive alternative to traditional sportsbooks. This rapid growth highlights the expanding commercial and regulatory significance of prediction markets beyond their traditional forecasting applications.

natlawreview.com

Claims (2)

The platform processes millions of transactions weekly across thousands of active markets. Sports betting emerged as the dominant category in 2024-2025, accounting for approximately 90% of trading volume by December 2025.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Trading volumes on Kalshi reached $2.3 billion for the week ending December 21, and the company surpassed 27.6 million trading transactions processed in the month of December. It’s been reported that sports wagers on football-related events accounted for 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume in December.”

The claim mentions 'millions of transactions weekly', but the source mentions '27.6 million trading transactions processed in the month of December'. The claim specifies the time frame '2024-2025', but the source only mentions 'December'.

Additional Integrations: In late 2025, Kalshi announced integration with the TRON network, the Phantom crypto wallet, and will serve as the in-house prediction market for Coinbase.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“For example, in mid-December, Kalshi integrated with the TRON network, “bridging traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.” This built upon an earlier announcement that Kalshi will make “its event trading available directly inside Phantom, one of the most widely used crypto wallets.” And analysts continue to report that Kalshi will be the in-house prediction market for the giant crypto platform Coinbase.”

WRONG DATE: The integration with the TRON network occurred in mid-December, not late 2025. OVERCLAIMS: The source states that Kalshi will make its event trading available directly inside Phantom, not that it has already integrated with Phantom.

17Prediction Markets Like Kalshi Are Monetizing Realitythestreet.com·Blog post▸

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing rapid growth by expanding beyond sports betting to cover political and real-world events. Traditional gaming industry groups are lobbying Congress for regulation or bans, citing concerns about market manipulation and the ethics of monetizing real-world outcomes. The tension highlights broader questions about how financial incentives interact with information aggregation and event outcomes.

thestreet.com

Claims (1)

By mid-January 2026, combined volumes for the two platforms totaled nearly \$4 billion, with Saturday, January 17 marking a new daily record of \$799 million across both platforms. Kalshi's competitive advantages include its legal clarity for US users, segregated customer funds with deposit insurance, and institutional partnerships enabling greater mainstream adoption.

Minor issues85%Apr 18, 2026

“Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction market exchanges, Piper Sandler said, with volumes totaling nearly $4 billion from Jan. 13-19, up 9% from the previous week. Saturday, Jan. 17, saw a new daily record of $799 million across the two platforms, the firm said, both of which are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).”

The source specifies the period of January 13-19, not mid-January 2026. The source does not mention Kalshi's competitive advantages.

18Predicting for Good: Charity Prediction MarketsEA Forum·Austin & harsimony·2022·Blog post▸

This proposal introduces Charity Prediction Markets (CPMs), a mechanism where all winnings are donated to charity rather than returned to bettors, enabling real-money prediction markets that comply with CFTC regulations. Developed by Manifold Markets, the model aims to improve collective forecasting accuracy while directing funds to effective altruism-aligned causes. It represents a creative regulatory workaround to scale incentivized forecasting as an epistemic institution.

★★★☆☆

forum.effectivealtruism.org

Claims (1)

Attention Externalities: In charity-oriented prediction markets, active trading demands constant vigilance, which is problematic for altruistically minded traders in the EA community who would prefer to allocate attention elsewhere.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Lastly, I think the externalities are quite big for prediction markets (as opposed to prediction pools): markets require constant vigilance as with every update, you win/lose. Active traders will spend a lot of attention on their trades. This is especially bad given that traders are altruistically minded.”

19STATSCORE and Kalshi Strategic Partnershipstatscore.com·Blog post▸

STATSCORE, a sports data provider, has partnered with Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, to integrate real-time sports statistics and analytics into Kalshi's trading platform. The three-year deal covers major sports and aims to improve decision-making for users engaging in sports event contracts. This represents an expansion of data infrastructure supporting regulated prediction markets.

statscore.com

Claims (1)

STATSCORE: A three-year strategic partnership provides Kalshi with premium sports data integration, enhancing sports contracts with high-resolution live data and analytics for football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey, baseball, Formula 1, and American football.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“STATSCORE, a leading global provider of premium sports data solutions, is partnering with Kalshi, the U.S.-based regulated financial exchange and prediction market, in a three-year strategic collaboration designed to enhance the live sports experience. The partnership combines Kalshi’s financial contracts with STATSCORE’s comprehensive live data and analytics , to elevate Kalshi’s sports contracts. The collaboration will focus on premier sports such as football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey, baseball, Formula 1 and American football .”

20Kalshi and Barchart Prediction Market Data Partnershipnews.kalshi.com·Blog post▸

Kalshi has partnered with Barchart to distribute its prediction market data on elections, economic indicators, and corporate outcomes to over 32 million retail investors and 1,000+ institutional clients. This integration brings probability-driven forecasting data into mainstream financial platforms, expanding the reach and legitimacy of prediction markets as analytical tools.

news.kalshi.com

Claims (1)

Barchart: Formally announced in November 2025, this partnership integrates Kalshi prediction market data feeds into Barchart's platform, providing 32 million investors and traders and 1,000+ institutional clients with access to electoral outcomes and economic indicator forecasts.

Inaccurate75%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market, today announced a formal partnership with Barchart, a leading provider of market information and analysis to over 32 million active investors and traders annually, and data solutions provider to over 1,000 global institutional businesses across finance and commodities.”

WRONG DATE: The partnership was announced in November 2023, not 2025. FABRICATED DETAIL: The source does not mention that the partnership provides access to electoral outcomes and economic indicator forecasts.

21Nasdaq Private Market: Kalshinasdaqprivatemarket.com▸

This is the Nasdaq Private Market listing page for Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange in the United States. Kalshi allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, operating under CFTC regulation as an official designated contract market. The page likely provides investor and company information relevant to Kalshi's private market activity.

nasdaqprivatemarket.com

Claims (3)

- March 2020: \$6.1 million seed round

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Series Seed Mar 04, 2020 6.10M Price Valuation”

- June 2025: \$60 million Series B

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Series B Jun 25, 2025 60.00M Price Valuation”

- June 2025: \$125 million Series C

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Series C Jun 25, 2025 125.00M Price Valuation”

22Sacra: Kalshi Analysissacra.com·Report▸

Sacra provides a business analysis of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange that saw 994% revenue growth in 2025 to $260M, with $22.88B in trading volume. The platform operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange allowing binary Yes/No contracts on real-world events, distinguishing itself from sportsbooks by acting as a marketplace rather than odds-setter. Its rapid growth and $11B valuation signal mainstream legitimacy for prediction markets as information aggregation tools.

sacra.com

Claims (2)

The company also has significant potential for data monetization, with real-time sentiment data valued at over \$50,000 annually by institutional clients, who view prediction market prices as superior to traditional polling for forecasting.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Institutional investors and media organizations currently pay $50K+ annually for alternative data from polling firms and sell-side research.”

The source does not mention real-time sentiment data or prediction market prices being superior to traditional polling for forecasting.

Kalshi generates revenue through transaction fees charged on the expected earnings of contracts. The platform uses a maker-taker fee structure where makers (those posting orders to the book) pay no fees, while takers (those accepting existing orders) pay fees ranging from 0.07% to 7% depending on the contract. This structure is designed to incentivize liquidity provision while remaining competitive with traditional sportsbook vigorish.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi operates a B2C two-sided prediction marketplace with a maker-taker fee structure. The company charges transaction fees only on "taker" orders (immediate purchases at market price), typically ranging from 0.07% to 7% depending on contract probability. "Maker" orders (limit orders providing liquidity) incur no fees, incentivizing traders to provide market depth.”

23How Prediction Markets Worknews.kalshi.com·Blog post▸

An introductory explainer on prediction markets as financial instruments for forecasting real-world outcomes, covering their mechanics, business models, and historical precedents. The piece contextualizes the recent mainstream surge in prediction markets following Kalshi's 2024 legal victory over the CFTC that permitted election trading in the US.

news.kalshi.com

Claims (2)

Inaccurate50%Apr 18, 2026

“This is thanks in no small part to Kalshi’s judicial win against regulators from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in October 2024.”

unsupported unsupported minor_issues

Kalshi offers binary yes/no contracts on verifiable real-world events. Contract prices reflect market-determined probabilities: a "Yes" contract trading at \$0.30 represents a 30% implied probability, and pays out \$1 if the event occurs. Users can take either side of any contract, enabling both speculation on beliefs and hedging against risks.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“This means that a trader could buy a “Yes” share for 30 cents and get paid out $1 if the event occurs. Conversely, if the government does not shut down (with “No” displaying a 70% probability), a trader would need to buy a 70-cent contract on “No” to earn that same $1 payout.”

24Kalshi and Prediction Markets Disrupt Sports Bettingespn.com·Blog post▸

This ESPN article examines how Kalshi and regulated prediction markets are entering the sports betting space, potentially disrupting traditional sportsbooks. It explores the regulatory landscape and how these markets differ from conventional sports wagering. The piece highlights the broader implications for how people can bet on event outcomes through federally regulated exchanges.

espn.com

Claims (1)

- 2025: Rapid expansion with sports betting launch generating over \$1 billion traded in first five months

Minor issues90%Apr 18, 2026

“A year later, Kalshi began offering sports contracts, including on the Super Bowl and the Masters, and advertised itself as the "First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform." Over the next five months, more than $1 billion was traded on 3.4 million sports propositions, according to a company spokesperson.”

The claim states that the rapid expansion and sports betting launch will occur in 2025, but the source does not mention the year 2025. The source only mentions that Kalshi began offering sports contracts a year later. The claim states that the sports betting launch generated over $1 billion traded in the first five months, but the source states that more than $1 billion was traded over the next five months.

25Kalshi and Chicago Blackhawks Partnershipnews.kalshi.com·Blog post▸

Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, has partnered with the Chicago Blackhawks, marking the first NHL team and first North American sports team to collaborate with a prediction market platform. The deal includes co-marketing, signage at the United Center, and broadcast exposure in the Chicago area. It builds on Kalshi's broader NHL partnership and aims to expand prediction market adoption through sports fan engagement.

news.kalshi.com

Claims (1)

Chicago Blackhawks: Kalshi secured a groundbreaking partnership with the Chicago Blackhawks, marking the first brand partnership between a North American sports team and a prediction market. The agreement, beginning during the Blackhawks' Centennial season, includes IP and marks sharing for co-marketing, social media engagement, Kalshi signage at United Center, and integration into Blackhawks broadcasts in the Chicago market.

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“With this agreement, the Blackhawks become the first sports team in North America to partner with a prediction market platform. The partnership, which begins this week, includes IP and marks sharing for co-marketing purposes, social media engagement, and Kalshi signage at the United Center as well as during Blackhawks broadcasts in the Chicago metro market.”

The agreement began this week, not during the Blackhawks' Centennial season. The source says 'Chicago metro market' not 'Chicago market'.

26Kalshi Partners with Coinbase Custody for USDC Tradingnews.kalshi.com·Blog post▸

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, has integrated Coinbase Custody to secure USDC holdings on its platform. This partnership combines regulatory compliance, institutional-grade custody infrastructure, and stablecoin stability to create a compliant trading environment for event contracts. The integration represents a step toward bringing prediction markets into mainstream finance.

news.kalshi.com

Claims (1)

Coinbase Custody: Partnership for USDC-powered event trading, providing institutional-grade protection and stability.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“Together, Kalshi and Coinbase are bringing institutional-grade protection and stability to event trading.”

27Kalshi Company Profile on EquityZenequityzen.com▸

EquityZen listing for Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange that allows users to trade on event contracts. Kalshi received CFTC approval in 2020 to operate as a federally regulated exchange for event-based contracts, representing a significant development in legitimate prediction market infrastructure.

equityzen.com

Claims (1)

- October 2025: \$300 million Series D at \$5 billion valuation, led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz

Minor issues80%Apr 18, 2026

“Successful $300 Million Funding Round Elevates Valuation to $5 Billion: Kalshi recently raised over $300 million in a funding round led by top investors including Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, boosting its valuation to $5 billion—a 2.5x increase from just three months prior.”

The source does not specify the month and year of the funding round.

28How Does Kalshi Make Money?help.kalshi.com▸

This help article explains Kalshi's business model as a regulated prediction market exchange, detailing how the platform generates revenue through transaction fees on trades rather than taking positions against users. It clarifies the fee structure and how Kalshi operates as a neutral marketplace.

help.kalshi.com

Claims (1)

Minor issues85%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi makes money by charging a transaction fee on the expected earnings of the contract.”

The source does not mention the specific maker-taker fee structure or the range of fees (0.07% to 7%). The source does not mention that the structure is designed to incentivize liquidity provision while remaining competitive with traditional sportsbook vigorish.

29NHL Announces Landmark Partnership with Kalshinhl.com·Blog post▸

The NHL has entered official multiyear partnerships with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, granting them access to proprietary NHL data, branding rights, and broadcast exposure. This represents a significant step in the mainstream legitimization of prediction markets as a fan engagement and financial product category.

nhl.com

Claims (1)

NHL Agreement: In 2025, Kalshi announced a multiyear partnership with the National Hockey League, providing access to official NHL proprietary data and rights to use NHL marks and logos. The agreement includes brand exposure via Digitally Enhanced Dasherboards and virtual signage during national broadcasts, including regular season games, Stanley Cup Playoffs, NHL Winter Classic, and NHL Stadium Series.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“The opportunity provides Polymarket and Kalshi with access to official NHL proprietary data and rights to use NHL marks, logos and official designations on their platforms and products. Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s brokers and merchants will also be able to use NHL marks and logos to identify the Polymarket and Kalshi products that they make available. Both companies will also receive brand exposure via Digitally Enhanced Dasherboards (DED) and blue line slot virtual signage on NHL game broadcasts including regular season national games, Stanley Cup Playoffs games and NHL Winter Classic and NHL Stadium Series national broadcasts.”

30Turning $150K into $700M in 6 YearsSubstack·Blog post▸

Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform founded by MIT graduates, grew from a $150K YC seed investment to a valuation of $11 billion by 2025. The piece profiles the founders and frames prediction markets as 'truth-revealing machines' that aggregate information into tradeable event outcomes. It highlights the growing mainstream legitimacy of prediction markets as both financial instruments and epistemic tools.

★★☆☆☆

signalhub.substack.com

Claims (1)

This represents a remarkable 5.5x valuation increase in just six months from Series D to Series E.

Accurate100%Apr 18, 2026

“In just six months, its valuation jumped from $2B to $11B—a 5.5x increase.”

31Kalshi - Prediction Market Platform (Wikipedia)Wikipedia▸

Wikipedia article on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange in the United States that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Kalshi became the first federally regulated prediction market in the US after receiving CFTC approval in 2020, enabling trading on events ranging from economics to politics.

★★★☆☆

en.wikipedia.org

Claims (1)

32Kalshi - Prediction Market for Trading the Futurekalshi.com▸

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform in the United States that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. It represents a legal, regulated approach to prediction markets, which are relevant to AI governance and forecasting discussions. Users can buy and sell contracts tied to economic, political, and other event outcomes.

kalshi.com

Claims (1)

As of late 2025, Kalshi offers one of the largest USD trading catalogs across multiple categories:

Unsupported0%Apr 18, 2026

“Kalshi - Prediction Market for Trading the Future”

The source does not contain any information about Kalshi's trading catalog size or categories.

33KalshiWikidata▸

This is a Wikidata entity page (Q114586938) with no accessible content provided. Wikidata entries typically serve as structured data references linking concepts, people, organizations, or works within a knowledge graph. Without content, the specific subject of this entity cannot be determined.

★★★☆☆

wikidata.org

Citation source check: 34 verified, 13 flagged, 4 unchecked of 87 total

Property	Value	As Of	Source
Founded Date	2018
Headquarters	New York City

Kalshi (Prediction Market)