Play-money prediction market where anyone can create markets on anything. 200,000+ active markets. Popular in EA/rationalist communities. Enables rapid information aggregation on niche topics.
Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting)ApproachPrediction Markets (AI Forecasting)Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100AI for Human Reasoning FellowshipApproachAI for Human Reasoning FellowshipFLF's inaugural 12-week fellowship (July-October 2025) combined research fellowship with startup incubator format. 30 fellows received $25-50K stipends to build AI tools for human reasoning. Produc...Quality: 55/100
Analysis
MetaDAO Futarchy ProtocolProjectMetaDAO Futarchy ProtocolFirst functional futarchy governance on mainnet. Participants trade on prediction markets about whether proposals will increase token value, replacing traditional voting. Generates ~$4,825/day in r...AI Capability Threshold ModelAnalysisAI Capability Threshold ModelComprehensive framework mapping AI capabilities across 5 dimensions to specific risk thresholds, finding authentication collapse/mass persuasion risks at 70-85% likelihood by 2027, bioweapons devel...Quality: 72/100AI Risk Activation Timeline ModelAnalysisAI Risk Activation Timeline ModelComprehensive framework mapping AI risk activation windows with specific probability assessments: current risks already active (disinformation 95%+, spear phishing active), near-term critical windo...Quality: 66/100AI-Bioweapons Timeline ModelAnalysisAI-Bioweapons Timeline ModelTimeline model projects AI-bioweapons capabilities crossing four thresholds: knowledge democratization already partially crossed (fully by 2025-2027), synthesis assistance 2027-2032 (median 2029), ...Quality: 58/100UMA Optimistic OracleProjectUMA Optimistic OracleDispute resolution mechanism for prediction markets. Assertions assumed true unless challenged. Now using LLMs to propose and dispute data. >99% accuracy. Primary resolution layer for Polymarket.
Key Debates
AI Risk Critical Uncertainties ModelCruxAI Risk Critical Uncertainties ModelIdentifies 35 high-leverage uncertainties in AI risk across compute (scaling breakdown at 10^26-10^30 FLOP), governance (10% P(US-China treaty by 2030)), and capabilities (autonomous R&D 3 years aw...Quality: 71/100
Other
Philip TetlockPersonPhilip TetlockPhilip Tetlock is a psychologist who revolutionized forecasting research by demonstrating that expert predictions often perform no better than chance, while identifying systematic methods and 'supe...Quality: 73/100Eli LiflandPersonEli LiflandBiographical profile of Eli Lifland, a top-ranked forecaster and AI safety researcher who co-authored the AI 2027 scenario forecast and co-founded the AI Futures Project. The page documents his for...Quality: 58/100
Organizations
MetaDAOOrganizationMetaDAOFirst DAO implementing functional futarchy governance on mainnet (Solana). Instead of token-holder voting, participants trade on prediction markets about whether proposals will increase token value...UMA ProtocolOrganizationUMA ProtocolBuilder of the Optimistic Oracle used by Polymarket for dispute resolution. Uses "optimistic" model where assertions are assumed true unless challenged. Now integrating LLMs to propose and dispute ...QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)OrganizationQURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)QURI develops Squiggle (probabilistic programming language with native distribution types), SquiggleAI (Claude Sonnet 3.5-powered model generation), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation across 18 pla...Quality: 48/100